Allen Matkins

Allen Matkins and UCLA Anderson Forecast Partnerships

Economic Stress and Economic Opportunity

Each economic recession is a little bit different, but this one is a lot different. Through the post-World War II period, recessions have been characterized by downturns in the purchase of goods by households, and by a slackening in housing markets. But today they are not. Consequently, multi-family housing and industrial space remain in the growth portion of their business cycles. But these unusual recession trends are not seen in either retail or office space markets. Both are in a more normal recession pattern of a downward trajectory with the rest of the economy.

Statistical forecast analysis has as its basis the proposition that past statistical relationships hold into the future. A knowledge of those correlations, current data, and perhaps some assumptions about data not yet known, lead to the forecast. Today, the ability to use past data to forecast into the future is more limited than before. However, forward-looking surveys such as the Allen Matkins/UCLA Anderson Forecast California CRE Survey, taken contemporaneously, can enrich our understanding and projections. The Survey has a rich set of questions such that, indirect qualitative inference can be made. 

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California Commercial Real Estate Survey and Index

Allen Matkins and UCLA Anderson Forecast have partnered to create a Commercial Real Estate Survey and Index to better predict future California commercial rental and vacancy rates. This tool surveys supply-side participants – commercial developers and financiers of commercial development – for insights into their markets. The Survey and the resulting Index provide a measure of the commercial real estate supply-side participants’ view of current and future conditions. Since participants make investment actions based upon these views, it provides a leading indicator of changing supply conditions.

Through an analysis of the Index and the incorporation of the Index into other economic forecasting models, the Survey is designed to provide more accurate information on future office, industrial and multifamily space in major California geographical markets. This fifteenth survey covers the major Southern California and Bay Area markets for office, industrial and multifamily space.

The Allen Matkins and UCLA Anderson Forecast Partnership

At Allen Matkins, the top-ranked California-based law firm servicing the real estate industry according to Chambers & Partners, we have been fortunate to work with and assist leading institutions, developers and lenders in the real estate industry. We have prospered, along with our clients, in this vital sector of the California economy. We sponsor this Survey to provide value to the industry. We have partnered with UCLA Anderson Forecast, the leading independent economic forecast of both the U.S. and California economies for over 60 years, and have tapped the knowledge of the leading developers and financiers of real estate development in California to provide what we believe is the best, clear-sighted forecast of the California commercial real estate industry.

UCLA Anderson Forecast