Allen Matkins

Allen Matkins and UCLA Anderson Forecast Partnerships

Recession, Uncertainty, and Opportunity

Every economic recession is a little bit different. In 1990 it was the aerospace contraction after the end of the Cold War, in 2001 it was the dot-com bubble, and so on. When they occur, it is common to think, “this time is different,” and invariably, that notion turns out to be incorrect. However, the 2020 recession is indeed different. Today we are faced with a pandemic-induced recession in which a public health crisis, rather than an imbalance between demand and supply, has resulted in a reduction in aggregate demand. Statistical forecast analysis has as its basis the proposition that past statistical relationships hold into the future. A knowledge of those correlations, current data, and perhaps some assumptions about data not yet known, lead to the forecast. Today, the ability to use past data to forecast into the future is more limited than before. However, forward-looking surveys such as the Allen Matkins/UCLA Anderson Forecast California Commercial Real Estate Survey, taken contemporaneously, can enrich our understanding and projections. [read more]

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California Commercial Real Estate Survey and Index

Allen Matkins and UCLA Anderson Forecast have partnered to create a Commercial Real Estate Survey and Index to better predict future California commercial rental and vacancy rates. This tool surveys supply-side participants – commercial developers and financiers of commercial development – for insights into their markets. The Survey and the resulting Index provide a measure of the commercial real estate supply-side participants’ view of current and future conditions. Since participants make investment actions based upon these views, it provides a leading indicator of changing supply conditions.

Through an analysis of the Index and the incorporation of the Index into other economic forecasting models, the Survey is designed to provide more accurate information on future office, industrial and multifamily space in major California geographical markets. This fifteenth survey covers the major Southern California and Bay Area markets for office, industrial and multifamily space.

The Allen Matkins and UCLA Anderson Forecast Partnership

At Allen Matkins, the top-ranked California-based law firm servicing the real estate industry according to Chambers & Partners, we have been fortunate to work with and assist leading institutions, developers and lenders in the real estate industry. We have prospered, along with our clients, in this vital sector of the California economy. We sponsor this Survey to provide value to the industry. We have partnered with UCLA Anderson Forecast, the leading independent economic forecast of both the U.S. and California economies for over 60 years, and have tapped the knowledge of the leading developers and financiers of real estate development in California to provide what we believe is the best, clear-sighted forecast of the California commercial real estate industry.

UCLA Anderson Forecast