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Past Reports
 

Economic Stress and Economic Opportunity

Winter 2021 | Issue No. 28

Through the post-World War II period, recessions have been characterized by downturns in the purchase of goods by households, and by a slackening in housing markets. But today they are not. Consequently, multi-family housing and industrial space remain in the growth portion of their business cycles. But these unusual recession trends are not seen in either retail or office space markets. Both are in a more normal recession pattern of a downward trajectory with the rest of the economy.

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Recession, Uncertainty and Opportunity

Summer 2020 | Issue No. 27

Every economic recession is a little bit different. In 1990 it was the aerospace contraction after the end of the Cold War, in 2001 it was the dot-com bubble, and so on. When they occur, it is common to think, “this time is different,” and invariably, that notion turns out to be incorrect. However, the 2020 recession is indeed different.

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Riding a Record-Long Expansion

Winter 2020 | Issue No. 26

Although economic forecasts, including that of the UCLA Anderson Forecast, have GDP growth slower in 2020 than in 2019, the expected continuation of growth in the California economy bodes well for most commercial real estate (CRE) types. The current Allen Matkins/UCLA Anderson Forecast California CRE Survey, conducted at the end of 2019, asked questions that look forward to 2022.

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An Upturn in CRE Development Foretold

Spring/Summer 2019 | Issue No. 25

Good news about future commercial real estate (CRE) development has arrived with the first of two 2019 surveys of developers throughout the major population centers of California. The Survey, conducted in May 2019 with questions that look forward to 2022, reveals a more optimistic outlook, particularly in some spaces, than has been observed the last couple of years. This is in large part because of the design of the survey.

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Economic Headwinds / Unchanged Expectations

Winter/Spring 2019 Survey | Issue No. 24

Trade wars, interest rate hikes, higher cap rates, falling equity values, and slowing employment growth all ought to affect the sentiment of developers as they consider new commercial real estate projects, particularly ones scheduled to open three years hence.

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The Turn of the Cycle

Summer/Fall 2017 | Issue No. 21

The economic data of late has been reasonably good. The unemployment rate has fallen to 4.4%, more people are working, income and spending are increasing, and consumer sentiment is good. So one would expect the Allen Matkins/UCLA Anderson Forecast California Commercial Real Estate Survey to be a bouquet of roses.

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The Tax Bump and Retail Slump

Winter/Spring 2018 | Issue No. 22

The end of the year brought a flurry of activity in Washington including the federal tax overhaul. Overall, the new tax structure does not look favorable for home buyers in California as it imposes lower limits on home mortgage interest and the deductibility of property tax. However, for commercial real estate the opposite appears to be true.

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The Turn of the Cycle

Summer/Fall 2017 | Issue No. 21

The economic data of late has been reasonably good. The unemployment rate has fallen to 4.4%, more people are working, income and spending are increasing, and consumer sentiment is good. So one would expect the Allen Matkins/UCLA Anderson Forecast California Commercial Real Estate Survey to be a bouquet of roses.

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The Trump Slump That Wasn't

Winter/Spring 2017 | Issue No. 20

When unexpected events occur, the perception of the future often changes. Certainly the election on November 8 qualifies as unexpected, at least in California. Given that California went heavily for Hillary Clinton, expectations ought to have changed for the worse. Yet, the Allen Matkins/UCLA Anderson Forecast survey, taken entirely after the election, shows no such discernible change.

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Topping Out in California

Summer/Fall 2016 | Issue No. 19

Good news about future commercial real estate (CRE) development has arrived with the first of two 2019 surveys of developers throughout the major population centers of California. The Survey, conducted in May 2019 with questions that look forward to 2022, reveals a more optimistic outlook, particularly in some spaces, than has been observed the last couple of years. This is in large part because of the design of the survey.

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Little Impact from Higher Interest Rates and Slower Economic Growth

Winter/Spring 2016 | Issue No. 18

California commercial real estate is booming once again and optimism about the future has not been dampened by the Fed’s interest rate policy. As California’s employment picture improves to a full-employment environment1 the lack of supply in housing, warehouses, and offices portends continued rental and occupancy rate increases.

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TAMI and Warehouse Demand Fuel Construction Boom

Summer/Fall 2015 | Issue No. 17

California commercial real estate is booming once again. With availability of finance at near record levels and low cap rates easing the way, the demand from technology, advertising, media and information (TAMI) as well as distribution center warehousing and a shortage of multi-family housing has propelled the industry boom.

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Reaching New Heights and Beyond

Winter/Spring 2015 | Issue No. 16

California commercial real estate is booming once again. During the past six months the average value of newly issued permits for non-residential construction after adjusting for inflation was the highest it had been since the middle of 2001.

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California Building Once Again

Summer/Fall 2014 | Issue No. 15

In January 2014 we observed that there was renewed developer optimism with regard to vacancy and occupancy rates across most California commercial real estate markets, based on the results of the December 2013 Allen Matkins UCLA Anderson Forecast Survey.

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The Return of the Cranes

Winter/Spring 2014 | Issue No. 14

In the June 2013 Allen Matkins UCLA Anderson Forecast Survey we observed that the cooling in developer optimism with regard to vacancy rates signaled a sense that demand and supply in the markets we surveyed were coming into balance.

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