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UCLA Anderson Forecast and UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs Presents
September 2021 Economic Outlook
 

Online Webinar

September 29, 2021

8:30 – 11:30 a.m. (Pacific Time)

Enhanced Webinar

Includes:

  • Zoom Webinar
  • Quarterly Digital Forecast Report
  • Participation in Q&A Session

$95

Register Now

Limited Webinar

Includes:

  • YouTube Viewing Access Only


 

Free

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Income Inequality, Economic Growth and Recessions

 

Recent months have seen a robust recovery from the 2020 recession. GDP will have surpassed its previous peak, and employment is on a recovery trajectory. The open question is where the economy goes from here. Will we return to 2% GDP growth, or will the adoption of technology used during the pandemic spur productivity and growth above 2%? Will labor-saving technology result in less demand for workers and a labor force participation rate that remains below 2019 levels? The answers to these questions have important implications for how income is distributed across individuals in the United States. Will the recovery affect income inequality, and how does income inequality affect economic growth? The September UCLA Anderson Forecast Conference will focus on these issues with the latest economic outlook, a keynote by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary C. Daly, and a panel of experts from UCLA’s Luskin School of Public Affairs, PPIC, RSM, and the Office of the Governor.

Sponsors

Principal Sponsor

8:30 - 8:40 a.m.
Welcome & Opening Remarks
Jerry Nickelsburg, Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast; Adjunct Professor of Economics, UCLA Anderson School of Management

8:40 – 8:55 a.m.
8:55 - 9:10 a.m.
9:10 - 9:25 a.m.
9:25 - 9:35 a.m.
9:35 - 9:45 a.m.
UCLA Anderson Forecast for the Nation and California
Jerry Nickelsburg, Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Leo Feler, Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Ed Leamer, Professor Emeritus, UCLA
William Yu, Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Leila Bengali, Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
9:45 - 9:55 a.m. Q&A with the Forecast Team
9:55 - 10:05 a.m. Break
10:05 - 10:40 a.m.
Keynote Address
Mary C. Daly, President and Chief Executive Officer, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank
in conversation with Leila Bengali, Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
10:40 - 11:25 a.m.
Panel: Inequality and Opportunity: Economic and Political Implications for the Macroeconomy
Moderator: Jerry Nickelsburg, Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist, RSM
Michael Tubbs, Advisor to Governor Newsom on Economic Mobility and Opportunity, Mayor of Stockton (2017-2020)
Paul Ong, Research Professor and Director of the Center for Neighborhood Knowledge, Luskin School for Public Affairs, UCLA
Sarah Bohn, Vice President of Research and Senior Fellow, John and Louise Bryson Chair in Policy Research, Public Policy Institute of California
Martin Gilens, Professor and Chair, Department of Public Policy, Professor of Public Policy, Political Science and Social Welfare, Luskin School for Public Affairs, UCLA
11:25 - 11:30 a.m.
Closing Remarks
Jerry Nickelsburg, Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast

Mary C. Daly, President and Chief Executive Officer, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank

Mary C. Daly is the President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. As a participant on the Federal Open Market Committee, she helps set American monetary policy that promotes a healthy and stable economy.

Since taking office in October 2018, Dr. Daly has committed to making the San Francisco Fed a more community-engaged bank that is transparent and responsive to the people it serves. She works to connect economic principles to real-world concerns and is a sought-after speaker on monetary policy, labor economics, and increasing diversity within the economics field.

Dr. Daly began her career with the San Francisco Fed in 1996 as an economist specializing in labor market dynamics and economic inequality. She went on to become the Bank’s Executive Vice President and Director of Research. She currently serves on advisory boards for the Center for First-generation Student Success and the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs at Syracuse University. She has also served on the advisory boards of the Congressional Budget Office, the Social Security Administration, the Office of Rehabilitation Research and Training, the Institute of Medicine, and the Library of Congress.

Dr. Daly earned a bachelor’s degree from the University of Missouri-Kansas City, a master’s degree from the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign and a Ph.D. from Syracuse University. She also completed a National Institute of Aging post-doctoral fellowship at Northwestern University.

A native of Ballwin, Missouri, Dr. Daly now lives in Oakland, California, with her wife Shelly.

Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist, RSM

Joe Brusuelas, “chief economist to the middle market,” is the preeminent voice championing issues and policies facing midsize companies in the United States and around the world. An award-winning economist, Brusuelas has more than 20 years’ experience analyzing U.S. monetary policy, labor markets, fiscal policy, international finance, economic indicators and the condition of the U.S. consumer.

A member of the Wall Street Journal’s forecasting panel, Brusuelas regularly briefs members of Congress and other senior officials regarding the impacts of federal policy on the middle market and the factors by which middle market executives make business decisions. He also frequently offers his insights on the U.S., Canadian and global economies in the financial media, including CNBC, Cheddar, NPR’s Marketplace, Yahoo! Finance, Financial Times, The New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, Axios and Politico. In 2020, he was named one of the 100 most influential economists by Richtopia.

At the heart of Brusuelas’ work at RSM is the Middle Market Business Index (MMBI), a first-of-its-kind economic index designed to accurately reflect business conditions in “the real economy.” The middle market in the United States consists of roughly 200,000 firms with annual revenues between $10 million and $2 billion, which account for 40% of GDP and one-third of the U.S. labor force.

Before joining RSM in 2014, Brusuelas spent four years as a senior economist at Bloomberg L.P. and the Bloomberg Briefs newsletter group, where he co-founded the award-winning Bloomberg Economic Brief. Earlier in his career, he was a director at Moody's Analytics covering the U.S. and global economies for the Dismal Scientist website. He also served as chief economist at Merk Investments L.L.C. and chief U.S. economist at IDEAglobal.

Brusuelas completed all economy and public policy dissertation requirements for his Ph.D. at the University of Southern California.

Michael Tubbs, Advisor to Governor Newsom on Economic Mobility and Opportunity, Mayor of Stockton (2017-2020)

Michael Tubbs was elected Mayor of Stockton in 2016 at 26 years old. He was Stockton’s first African-American Mayor, and the youngest Mayor of any major city in American history. Tubbs also serves as a statewide appointee of Governor Gavin Newsom on the Commission for Police Officer and Standards Training (POST) and as a member of the National Police Foundation’s Council on Policing Reforms and Race.

As Mayor, Tubbs was lauded for his leadership and innovation. He raised over $20 million dollars to create the Stockton Scholars, a scholarship and mentorship program for Stockton students. Additionally, Tubbs launched the Stockton Economic Empowerment Demonstration, the nation’s first-ever mayor-led guaranteed income pilot. He then parlayed that effort into creating Mayors for a Guaranteed Income (MGI), a coalition of over 30 mayors which  advocates for an income floor for all Americans.  

Under his leadership, Stockton was named an All American city in 2017 and 2018, saw a 40% drop in homicides in 2018 and 2019, led the state of California in the decline of officer-involved shootings in 2019, was named the second most fiscally healthy city in California, and was featured in an HBO documentary film entitled “Stockton on My Mind.”

Tubbs has been named a fellow at the MIT Media lab, a member of Fortune’s Top 40 under 40,  a Forbes 30 under 30 All Star Alumni, the “Most Valuable Mayor” by the Nation Magazine, the 2021 Civic Leadership Award winner from the King Center, and 2019 New Frontier Award Winner from the JFK Library and the Institute of Politics. Prior to his election as Mayor, Tubbs served as a Councilmember for the City of Stockton District 6, a high school educator, and a fellow for the Stanford Design School and the Emerson Collective.

Paul Ong, Research Professor and Director of the Center for Neighborhood Knowledge, Luskin School for Public Affairs, UCLA

Professor Ong has done research on the labor market status of minorities and immigrants, displaced high-tech workers, work and spatial/transportation mismatch, and environmental justice. He is currently engaged in several projects, including an analysis of the relationship between sustainability and equity, the racial wealth gap, and the role of urban structures on the reproduction of inequality.

Previous research projects have included studies of the impact of defense cuts on California’s once-dominant aerospace industry, the impact of immigration on the employment status of young African Americans, and the influence of car ownership and subsidized housing on welfare usage.

Dr. Ong is the Director of the Center for Neighborhood Knowledge and editor of AAPI Nexus, and has served as an advisor to the U.S. Bureau of the Census, and to the California Department of Social Services and the state Department of Employment Development, as well as the Wellness Foundation and the South Coast Air Quality Management District.

He received a master’s in urban planning from the University of Washington, and a Ph.D. in Economics, University of California, Berkeley. Along with his quantitative research, his professional practice includes teaching and applying visual forms of communication.

Sarah Bohn, Vice President of Research and Senior Fellow, John and Louise Bryson Chair in Policy Research, Public Policy Institute of California

Sarah Bohn is vice president of research and a senior fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California, where she holds the John and Louise Bryson Chair in Policy Research. She is also a member of the PPIC Higher Education Center. As vice president of research, she works with PPIC staff to bring high-quality, nonpartisan research to important policy issues in California. Her own research focuses on the role of social safety net policy and education policy in alleviating poverty and enhancing economic mobility. Her other areas of expertise include immigration policy, the workforce skills gap, and California’s economy. Her work has been published in major academic journals, including the American Economic Review, Demography, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, and The Review of Economics and Statistics. She holds a PhD in economics from the University of Maryland, College Park.

Martin Gilens, Professor and Chair, Department of Public Policy, Professor of Public Policy, Political Science and Social Welfare, Luskin School for Public Affairs, UCLA

Martin Gilens is Chair of the Department of Public Policy. He also is a Professor of Public Policy, Political Science, and Social Welfare at UCLA. His research examines representation, public opinion, and mass media, especially in relation to inequality and public policy. Professor Gilens is the author of Affluence & Influence: Economic Inequality and Political Power in America, and Why Americans Hate Welfare: Race, Media and the Politics of Antipoverty Policy, and coauthor (with Benjamin I. Page) of Democracy in America?: What Has Gone Wrong and What We Can Do about It. He has published widely on political inequality, mass media, race, gender, and welfare politics. He earned a Ph.D. in sociology at the University of California Berkeley, and has held fellowships at the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton, the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences at Stanford, and the Russell Sage Foundation. Professor Gilens is a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and taught at Yale and Princeton universities before joining the Luskin School at UCLA in 2018.