UCLA Anderson Forecast cautiously projects ‘better than expected outcome’
Los Angeles (Sept. 30, 2020) — Just six months ago, the UCLA Anderson Forecast issued a bleak prognosis for the national economy, anticipating the impact of what was still being called the COVID-19 epidemic.
The Post-COVID Economy
Following a 31.7% annualized decline in real GDP during
the April-June time period (9.1% non-annualized), we
are now forecasting annualized growth of 28.3% for the
July-September time period (6.4% non-annualized).
September 2020 Economic Outlook
The U.S. economy continues to move through the COVID-19 pandemic and the deepest economic decline since the Great Depression. After a partial reopening of the economy, labor markets remain weak, bankruptcies are increasing, virus cases are higher than they were in Q2, and there is renewed concern about an apparent recovery being muted at best. In this environment, technology companies reported strong sales and profits, and the NASDAQ is at a record high. The September UCLA Anderson Forecast will present its updated U.S. and California forecasts and discuss, in conjunction with the Easton Technology Management Center and the Fink Center for Finance & Investments, how the boom in technology will lead the coming expansion and its impact on society and inequality.
- Bankruptcies are here and increasing.
- Nasdaq is at an all-time high.
- Are we in a long term environment of near-zero interest rates?
- What are the dangers of inflation from fiscal and monetary policy?
- Will the economy falter and extend the recession-the W scenario?
- When and how will enough jobs be created to absorb the huge increase in the unemployed?
- How are recent government actions (such as unemployment insurance payment increases and the Paycheck Protection Program) affecting California and the outlook for the state?
- How has COVID-19 altered venture investing activities?
- How will technology-based investments impact the California Economy?