June 2020 Economic Outlook

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June 2020 Economic Outlook Highlights


June 2020 Economic Outlook - Forecast for the U.S. and CA

Allen Matkins/UCLA Anderson Forecast CRE Survey Results with John Tipton

What Will Cities Look Like Post-Pandemic? with Richard Florida

Housing Market Analysis with Ivy Zelman

California Home Affordability with Conor Dougherty

Uncertainty Clouds California Economy; State’s Recovery Will Mirror That of the Nation

Sponsored By

Principal Sponsor


Platinum Sponsors

Allen MatkinsUniversity Credit Union

Gold Sponsors

Robert HalfUnitedWells Fargo The Private Bank

Silver Sponsors

California Bank TrustCathay BankCentury LinkLandSea HomesPacific Western BankZurich

Bronze Sponsors

Alba Wheels Up - Success. Delivered.CBREClark ConstructionColliersHanmi BankHathaway DinwiddieMarsh McLennan AgencyMBK Real Estate CompaniesPartner Engineering and Science Inc.Union Bank - The Private Bank

Bruin Sponsors

Gerber Kawasaki

Media Sponsor

Los Angeles Business Journal

Academic Sponsor

UCLA Extension

June 2020 Economic Overview


June 24th will be the first quarterly Forecast conference since our recession call mid-March. Much has happened since then. With a record high layoff/furlough rate, record high support/stimulus packages and public health policy interventions the economy is in unchartered waters.

The depth of the recession will be worse than anything since the 1929-1933 crash. But what about the expansion? Will it be slow as in the aftermath of 2008/2009 or fast like 1983? And how will the economic landscape, now scarred by the pandemic, change? In addition to this broad focus, in conjunction with the Ziman Center for Real Estate, featured guest speakers will weigh in on the pandemic and recession’s impact on housing markets.

The June 24 Economic Outlook conference, which will be brought to you live streamed over Zoom and if permitted, with a limited on-Campus audience, will take a first look at these topics.

Key Topics
  • What will the Post-COVID economy look like?
  • Is the 35%-40% estimated annualized decline in the real GDP represent the bottom, or will the decline continue into the third quarter?
  • Housing was booming going into March. Will the current COVID induced drop in housing activity be temporary or something more fundamental?
  • Will the COVID pandemic signal an end to the urban housing boom and a shift back to the suburbs?
  • How are residential real estate markets across the U.S. and in California responding to the coronavirus pandemic?
  • Could there be unintended consequences of California's new tenant protection law on residential real estate markets?
8:30 - 8:40 a.m. Welcome + Introductions

Jerry Nickelsburg, Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast
8:40 - 10:00 a.m. UCLA Anderson Forecast for the Nation and California, Following a Q&Q with the Forecast Team

David Shulman (MBA '66, Ph.D. '75), Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Jerry Nickelsburg, Ph.D., Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Edward Leamer, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, UCLA Anderson
William Yu, Ph.D., Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Leila Bengali, Ph.D., Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
10:00 - 10:20 a.m. Allen Matkins/UCLA Anderson Forecast CRE Survey Results

A conversation with John Tipton, Partner at Allen Matkins, hosted by Jerry Nickelsburg
10:20 - 10:40 a.m. Housing Market Analysisy

A conversation with Ivy Zelman, CEO, Zelman & Associates, hosted by David Shulman
10:40 - 11:00 a.m. What Will Cities Look Like Post-Pandemic?

A conversation with Richard Florida, Professor, Urbanist and Writer, hosted by Jerry Nickelsburg
11:00 - 11:20 a.m. California Home Affordability

Edward Coulson, Director, Center for Real Estate, UCI Merage School of Business

Jerry Nickelsburg

Adjunct Professor
Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast

Jerry Nickelsburg joined the UCLA’s Anderson School of Management and The Anderson Forecast in 2006. Since 2017 he has been the Director of The Anderson Forecast. He teaches economics in the MBA program with a focus on Asian economies. As the Director of The Anderson Forecast he plays a key role in the economic modeling and forecasting of the National, and California economies. He has conducted research in the areas of labor economics, industrial organization, statistics, and international monetary economics, focusing on the development of new data and the application of economic theory and statistical methods to policy issues. His current academic research is on specific skills, structural unemployment, and on energy efficiency in transportation. He is a regular presenter at Economic Conferences and is cited in the national media including the Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Los Angeles Times, and Reuters.

He received his Ph.D. in economics from the University of Minnesota in 1980 specializing in monetary economics and econometrics. He was formerly a professor of Economics at the University of Southern California and has held executive positions with McDonnell Douglas, FlightSafety International, and FlightSafety Boeing during a fifteen-year span in the aviation business. He also held a position with the Federal Reserve Board of Governors developing forecasting tools, and has advised banks, investors and financial institutions.

From 2000 to 2006, he was the Managing Principal of Deep Blue Economics, a consulting firm he founded. He has been the recipient of the Korda Fellowship, USC Outstanding Teacher, India Chamber of Commerce Jubilee Lecturer, and he is a Fulbright Scholar. He has published over 100 scholarly and popular articles on monetary economics, economic forecasting and analysis, labor economics, and industrial organization and he is the author of two books on monetary economics and exchange rates.


David Shulman

Senior Economist
Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast

David Shulman is Distinguished Visiting Professor and a “Managing Director” at the Financial Leadership Program at Baruch College where he mentors students seeking front-office careers on Wall Street, and a Visiting Scholar/Senior Economist at the UCLA Anderson Forecast where he is responsible for U.S. Macro. In addition, he is currently Managing Member of his LLC where he is engaged in investment and litigation consulting. He comments on his blog, http://shulmaven.blogspot.com.

In March 2005, he retired from Lehman Brothers where he was Managing Director and Head REIT analyst. From 2001-04 he was voted on the Institutional Investor All Star Teams including First Team in 2002. Prior to joining Lehman Brothers in 2000 he was a Member and Senior Vice President at Ulysses Management LLC (1998-99) an investment manager of a private investment partnership and an offshore corporation whose total investment capital approximated $1 billion at the end of 1999.

From 1986-1997, Mr. Shulman was employed by Salomon Brothers Inc in various capacities. He was Director of Real Estate Research from 1987-91 and Chief Equity Strategist from 1992-97. In the latter capacity he was responsible for developing the Firm’s overall equity market view and maintaining the Firm’s list of recommended stocks. Mr. Shulman was widely quoted in the print and electronic media and he coined the terms “Goldilocks Economy” and “New Paradigm Economy”. In 1991, he was named a Managing Director and in 1990 he won the first annual Graaskamp Award for Excellence in Real Estate Research from the Pension Real Estate Association.

Prior to joining Salomon Brothers Inc., he was Vice President and Director of Research Planning at TCW Realty Advisors in Los Angeles. Earlier in his career Mr. Shulman was an academic. He was an Associate Professor of Management and Economics at the University of California at Riverside and Financial Economist at the UCLA Business Forecasting Project. In 2017, the David Shulman Endowed Excellence in Teaching Award Fund was established by a former student of his.

A graduate of Baruch College (1964), Mr. Shulman received his Ph.D. (1975) with a specialization in Finance and a M.B.A. (1966) from the UCLA Graduate School of Management. He is married and has three grown children.


William Yu

UCLA Anderson Forecast

William Yu joined the UCLA Anderson Forecast in 2011 as an economist where he focuses on the economic modeling, forecasting and Los Angeles economy. He also conducts research and forecasts on China’s economy, and its relationship with the U.S. economy. His research interests include a wide range of economic and financial issues, such as time series econometrics, data analytics, stock, bond, real estate, and commodity price dynamics, human capital, and innovation. Currently, he teaches business forecasting and data science courses at UCLA Anderson and UCLA Extension. He also serves as a faculty advisor for the Applied Management Research Program at UCLA Anderson.

He has published over a dozen research articles in Journal of Forecasting, International Journal of Forecasting, Journal of International Money and Finance, etc. He also published op-ed articles in Los Angeles Times and other newspapers. He developed the City Human Capital Index and the Los Angeles City Employment Estimate. He has been cited in the local, national and overseas media frequently including Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times, Washington Post, Time, Bloomberg, CBS Money Watch, Al Jazeera, U-T San Diego, LA Daily News, LA Daily Breeze, Straits Times, NBC, ABC, CNBC, CNN, and NPR, as well as various Chinese and Korean media. Yu has been invited as a speaker for various events, including the annual Woo K. Greater China Business Conference and National Association for Business Economics.

Yu received his bachelor’s degree in finance from National Taiwan University in 1995 and was an analyst in Fubon Financial Holding in Taipei from 1997 to 2000. In 2006, he received his Ph.D. degree in economics from the University of Washington where he was also an economics instructor and won two distinguished teaching awards. In 2006, he worked for the Frank Russell Investment Group for Treasury and corporate yields modeling and forecasting. From 2006 to 2011, he served as an assistant and an associate professor of economics at Winona State University where he taught courses including forecasting methods, managerial economics, international economics, and macroeconomics.


Edward Leamer

Distinguished Professor
Chauncey J. Medberry Chair in Management
Director Emeritus, UCLA Anderson Forecast

Edward Leamer is UCLA Anderson’s Chauncey J. Medberry Professor of Management and professor of economics, professor of statistics and director of the UCLA/Anderson Business Forecast Project. His philosophy on education is straightforward.

After serving as assistant and associate professor at Harvard University, Leamer joined the UCLA faculty in 1975 as professor of economics. In 1990 he moved across campus to UCLA Anderson and was appointed to the Chauncey J. Medberry Chair. He is a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and a fellow of the Econometric Society. In 2014 he won the award for Outstanding Antitrust Litigation Achievement in Economics, awarded annually by the American Antitrust Institute.

Leamer’s work has been impactful beyond the classroom and his academic research. As director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast, business practitioners in every field value his opinions. For example, in his December 2000 forecast, the UCLA Anderson Forecast (http://www.uclaforecast.com/) stood virtually alone in predicting the 2001 recession. In a special release on September 12, 2001, the Forecast correctly analyzed the likely unimportance of 9/11 for the evolution of the recession. In June 2002, Leamer began warning about a momentum-driven overheated housing market that was sure to cause problems for the economy in the future. In August of 2007 at the annual Federal Reserve Jackson Hole Symposium, Leamer argued for special targeting of housing in a paper titled “Housing IS the Business Cycle.”

Leamer is a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research and has been an occasional visiting scholar at the IMF and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. He has served on the Councils of Economic Advisors or Governor Wilson, Governor Schwarzenegger and Mayor Garcetti. He has been on the Advisory Board of the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In 2005-2006 he chaired a panel of the National Academy of Sciences on outsourcing and delivered the report to Commerce and to Congress.

He has published over 120 articles and five books and reminds those interested to hurry to Amazon.com to purchase his most recent books: either Macroeconomic Patterns and Stories, or The Craft of Economics. His research papers in econometrics have been collected in Sturdy Econometrics, published in the Edward Elgar Series of Economists of the 20th Century. His research in international economics and econometric methodology has been discussed in New Horizons in Economic Thought: Appraisals of Leading Economists.


Leila Bengali

UCLA Anderson Forecast

Leila Bengali is an economist at The Anderson Forecast. She joined in 2019. As an economist, and a native Californian, she focuses on modeling the California economy and on policy issues that are relevant to California. Having studied behavioral economics both in college and in graduate school, she brings insights from this field to her work at The Anderson Forecast. She received her Ph.D. in economics from Yale University in 2019 where she was selected for the Russell Sage Foundation Summer Institute in Behavioral Economics and awarded the Whitebox Advisors Doctoral Fellowship. Her fields of concentration were behavioral economics and public finance.

After graduating from Swarthmore College in 2011 with a B.A. in economic (major) and psychology (minor), she worked as an analyst at Analysis Group in the San Francisco Bay Area. During her time in economic consulting, she worked with a team of economists and experts to provide litigation support and research for major national and international companies in industries ranging from manufacturing to information technology. After working in economic consulting, Leila joined Economic Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Working with prominent economists on issues of employment, education, and economic mobility, Leila conducted research supporting U.S. monetary policy, writing reports for both internal and external audiences.

Leila's research lies at the intersection of behavioral economics and public finance. Within these fields, she focuses on how and why individuals use or ignore information when making decisions and on the resulting implications for policy. Leila has also worked with local governments to design and implement policy evaluations and has published in the field of labor economics.


John Tipton

Allen Matkins

Having solved thousands of business and legal issues related to real estate transactions over the years, John Tipton’s market coverage and depth are vast. From large-scale multi-use developments, office projects, retail, hotels and recreational facilities, to corporate headquarters, he has negotiated and closed almost every asset and deal type.

A skilled negotiator and problem solver who knows California's commercial real estate market as well as anyone, John represents owners, developers, and lenders in capital markets, asset management, and leasing transactions. He counts among his clients private and institutional investors as well as national and multi-national corporations, for both their owned and leased properties.

Practical Counsel

The key to John’s ability to attract and keep loyal clients is two-fold: practical and solution-oriented. He learns his clients’ businesses, their pressure points, and their decision making levers so he can approach any deal or problem from their perspective. He takes a balanced approach to negotiations by finding common ground between parties and establishing a human connection—a winning formula that has proven itself time and again for arriving at the best terms for his client while getting the deal that they want done.

John believes that delivering exceptional service is not optional, but critical to his clients’ goals. He not only promptly returns phone calls and emails, but is acutely responsive to their needs at every juncture.

Strategic and Well-connected

In the widely-respected and highly-regarded Allen Matkins deal-making culture—more practical and deal/client focused than most law firms—John stands out for his commitment to support his client’s business strategy. He also places a priority on cultivating important relationships with others throughout California and across North America that contribute to his clients’ successes, as well with his Allen Matkins colleagues, where he has access to the knowledge base of nearly 100 real estate team members. Significant Transactions

John handles deals that range from millions to billions of dollars. Among his most considerable transactions are: the acquisition and development of commercial office properties at Playa Vista, California; the $9.5 billion acquisition of Hughes Aircraft Company, involving 20 million square feet across 30 states; the repositioning of over 200 anchor retail outlets throughout the Western United States; the national development and rollout of over 200 hotels for a major hotel chain, and the repositioning of corporate real estate for a Fortune 150 Company.

In each of calendar years 2012, 2013, and 2014, John represented the buyers in the largest annual real estate transaction in Los Angeles.


Ivy Zelman

Chief Executive officer
Zelman & Associates

Ivy Zelman is Chief Executive Officer of Zelman & Associates holding roughly 30 years of experience covering housing and housing-related industries. In 2007, Ivy co-founded Zelman & Associates. The firm provides analyses across all aspects of the housing spectrum. Ivy’s concept for the firm remains strongly rooted in the ability to perform thematic research overlaid with proprietary surveys to produce unparalleled differentiated value-added research.

Ivy has been widely known and respected for her bold thinking and accurate assessments where others failed, helping industry players avoid costly mistakes and capture game-changing opportunities. In 2005, she called the top of the housing market. Ivy famously asked Toll Brothers CEO Bob Toll on the Q4 2006 Toll Brothers conference call “Which Kool-Aid Are You Drinking?”

From there Ivy called the bottom of the housing market in January 2012, thus reinforcing her dominant reputation within the industry. She helped best-selling writer, Michael Lewis with research related to the mortgage crash. This became a part of his best-selling book turned movie, Liar’s Poker. Michael wrote in the book “all roads led to Ivy.”

Her convictions have been recognized by Institutional Investor ranking her as one of the most preeminent figures within the housing industry. Most notably, Institutional Investors - America Research Team rankings placed Ivy and her team with eleven 1st place rankings (1999 – 2004, 2006 – 2007 and 2010 – 2013). Additionally, Hanley Wood, a leading real estate media firm, ranked Ivy as 14th of the Top 50 most influential persons in housing. In 2020, Ivy was included in Barron's Top 100 Women in U.S. Finance.

As one of the most powerful women on Wall Street, Ivy Zelman is a sought-after expert on the housing sector, and what the overall housing market means for investors, homebuilders, industry executives and the economy at large. She frequently appears on television shows such as CNBC, in major publications including The Wall Street Journal, and has acted as a key witness in a congressional hearing.

Jim Cramer, host of the CNBC’s show Mad Money, said “Ivy is the Ax of the homebuilders – the analyst who understands the group better than anyone else on Wall Street.”

Ivy’s speaking requests by conferences, board meetings, podcasts or special events have included: Bloomberg, CNBC, TD Ameritrade Network, Bloomberg’s Master’s in Business, International Builder Show, MBS Highway, National Association of Homebuilders, NFX, National Association of Realtors, National Organization of Investment Professionals, Mortgage Banking Association, Moody’s, AmeriCatalyst, PropTechCEO Summit, Reality Alliance.

She received a Bachelor of Science from George Mason University and currently lives in Cleveland, Ohio with her husband David and their three children, Zoey, Zachary and Zia. Ivy is a special advisor to Laurel School, BBYO, NCJW Cleveland as well as mentors’ high school and college students.


Richard Florida

Professor, Urbanist, Writer

The Director of the Martin Prosperity Institute at the University of Toronto’s Rotman School of Management, Global Research Professor at New York University, and the founder of the Creative Class Group, which works closely with governments and companies worldwide, Richard Florida is perhaps the world’s leading urbanist, “as close to a household name as it is possible for an urban theorist to be in America,” according to The Economist. Esquire has included him on its annual list of “The Best and the Brightest,” and Fast Company dubbed him an “intellectual rock star.” MIT Technology Review recently named him one of the world’s most influential thinkers.

Florida is the author of several global best sellers, including the award-winning The Rise of the Creative Class (“one of the best business books of all time”—800-CEO-READ), and is a senior editor for The Atlantic, where he co-founded and serves as Editor-at-Large for Atlantic Cities, the world’s leading media site devoted to cities and urban affairs. Florida appears regularly on CNN and other news broadcasts and is a regular contributor to the op ed pages of major newspapers and magazines. TIME magazine recognized his Twitter feed as one of the 140 most influential in the world.

Florida previously taught at Carnegie Mellon and George Mason University, and has been a visiting professor at Harvard and MIT. He earned his Bachelor’s degree from Rutgers College and his Ph.D. from Columbia University.


Conor Dougherty

Economics Reporter
The New York Times

Conor Dougherty is an economics reporter at The New York Times. His work focuses on the West Coast, real estate and wage stagnation among U.S. workers. Mr. Dougherty has covered economics and real estate on and off for a decade at both The Times and The Wall Street Journal. Before that he worked at The San Diego Union-Tribune and The Los Angeles Business Journal. He lives in Oakland, Calif., and is a Bay Area native.