Francis Longstaff

Profile photo of Francis Longstaff

Allstate Chair in Insurance and Finance




Francis A. Longstaff is a certified public accountant (CPA) and a chartered financial analyst (CFA). From 1995 to 1998, Longstaff was head of fixed income derivative research at Salomon Brothers Inc. in New York. He has also worked in the research department of the Chicago Board of Trade and for Deloitte and Touche as a management consultant.

His current research interests include:
1. Fixed income markets and term structure theory;
2. Derivative markets and valuation theory;
3. Credit risk;
4. Computational finance;
5. Liquidity and its effects on prices and markets;
6. The role of arbitrage in financial markets.

Several of his recent term structure papers have focused on the expectations hypothesis. Recent papers in the area of derivatives have focused on the valuation of American options by simulation and on the valuation of interest rate derivatives in string models of the term structure. Other recent papers provide upper bounds on the size of discounts for lack of liquidity that can be sustained in financial markets and also examine the risk/return relationship for hedge funds investing in pure arbitrage opportunities when there are margin constraints. He has published nearly 70 articles in academic and practitioner journals.

Many of his valuation models have been used widely on Wall Street and throughout the global financial markets. He has extensive experience as a consultant for many Wall Street firms, mutual funds, hedge funds, commercial banks and other financial institutions, software developers and risk management firms, as well as in litigation support. He is a frequent speaker at practitioner seminars and conferences.



Ph.D. Finance, 1987, University of Chicago

B.A. Accounting, 1982, University of Utah

MBA, 1980, University of Utah

B.A.Finance, 1979, University of Utah

Working Papers

Selected Publications

Macroeconomic-Driven Prepayment Risk and the Valuation of Mortgage-Backed Securities (with Mikhail Chernov and Brett R. Dunn) The Review of Financial Studies 31, 1132-1183, 2017 December.

Advance Refundings of Municipal Bonds (with Andrew Ang, Richard C. Green, and Yuhang Xing) The Journal of Finance 72,  1645-1682, 2017 August.

 Valuing Thinly-Traded Assets.  (Francis A. Longstaff) Management Science, 1-11, 2017 May 24.

Deflation Risk (with Matthias Fleckenstein, and Hanno Lustig) The Review of Financial Studies 30, 2719-2760, 2017 February. 

A Formal Method for Identifying District States of Variability in Time-Varying Sources:  Sgr A* as an Example (with L. Meyer, G. Witzel, and A.M. Ghez) Astrophysical Journal 791:24, 2014 August 10.

Macroeconomic Effects of Corporate Default Crises:  A Long-Term Perspective, (with Kay Giesecke, Stephen Schaefer, and Ilya Strebulaev) Journal of Financial Economics 111, 297-310, 2014

Disagreement and Asset Pricing (with Bruce Carlin and Kyle Matoba), Journal of Financial Economics 114, 226-238, 2014.

The Tips-Treasury Puzzle (with Matthias Fleckenstein and Hanno Lustig, The Journal of Finance 69, 215-2197, 2014.

Systemic Sovereign Credit Risk: Lessons from the U.S. and Europe (with Andrew Ang, Journal of Monetary Economics 60, 493-510, 2013.

A Tidally Distorted Dwarf Galaxy Near NGC 4449 (with P.M Rick, M.L.M Collins, C.M. Black, A. Lock, A. Bengon, and D.B. Reitzel, Nature 482, 9 February 2012, 192-194.

How Does the Market Value Toxic Assets? (with Brett Myers). Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 49, 297-320, 2014.

Asset Pricing and the Credit Market (with Jiang Wang) Review of Financial Studies 25 (11), 3169-3215, 2012.

Corporate Bond Default Risk: A 150-Year Perspective (with K. Giesecke, I. Strebulaev and S. Schaefer), Journal of Financial Economics 102, 233-250, 2011.

Counterparty Credit Risk and the Valuation of Credit Default Swaps (with N. Arora and P. Gandhi), Journal of Financial Economics 103, 280-293, 2012.

How Sovereign is Sovereign Credit Risk? (with J. Pan, L. Pedersen and K. Singleton), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 3, 75-103, 2011.

Municipal Debt and Marginal Tax Rates: Is There a Tax Premium in Asset Prices?Journal of Finance 66, 721-751, 2011.

The Subprime Credit Crisis and Contagion in Financial MarketsJournal of Financial Economics 97, 436-450, 2010.

"Asset Pricing in Markets with Illiquid Assets," American Economic Review, 99, 1119-1144, 2009

"An Empirical Analysis of the Pricing of Collateralized Debt Obligations" (with Arvind Rajan), Journal of Finance, 63, 509-563, 2008

"Systemic Credit Risk: What is the Market Telling Us?" (with Vineer Bhangali and Robert Gingrich), Financial Analysts Journal, 64, July/August 16-24, 2008

"Two Trees" (with John Cochrane and Pedro Santa-Clara), Review of Financial Studies, 21, 247-385, 2008

The U.S. Treasury Buyback Auctions: The Cost of Retiring Illiquid Bonds" (with Bing Han and Craig Merrill), Journal of Finance 62, 2673-2693, 2007.

"Risk and Return in Fixed Income Arbitrage: Nickels in Front of a Steamroller?" (with Jefferson Duarte and Fan Yu), Review of Financial Studies, 769-811, 2007.

Borrower Credit and the Valuation of Mortage-Backed Securities,"Real Estate Economics 33, 619-661, 2005.

"The Market Price of Risk in Interest Rate Swaps: The Roles of Default and Liquidity Risks" (with Jun Liu and Ravit Mandell), The Journal of Business 79, 5, 2337-2360, September 2006.

"Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquity? New Evidence from the Credit-Default Swap Market"(with Sanjay Mithal and Eric Neis), The Journal of Finance 60, 2213-2253, 2005.

"Corporate Earnings and the Equity Premium" (with Monika Piazzesi), Journal of Financial Economics 74, 401-421, 2004.

"Electricity Forward Prices: A High-Frequency Empirical Analysis" (with Ashley Wang), The Journal of Finance 59, 1877-1900, 2004.

"Losing Money on Arbitrages: Optimal Dynamic Portfolio Choice in Markets with Arbitrage Opportunities" (with Jun Liu), The Review of Financial Studies 17, 611-641, 2004.

"The Flight to Liquidity Premium in U.S. Treasury Bond Prices," The Journal of Business 77, 511-526, 2004.

"Paper Millionaires: How Valuable is Stock to a Stockholder Who is Restricted from Selling it?", The Journal of Financial Economics 67, 385-410, 2003.

"Dynamic Asset Allocations with Event Risk"(with Jun Liu and Jun Pan), The Journal of Finance 58, 1, 231-259, February 2003.

"Throwing Away a Billion Dollars: The Cost of Suboptimal Exercise Strategies in the Swaptions Market" (with Pedro Santa-Clara & Eduardo S. Schwartz), Journal of Financial Economics 62, 39-66, 2001.

"The Relative Valuation of Caps and Swaptions: Theory and Empirical Evidence" (with Pedro Santa-Clara & Eduardo S. Schwartz), The Journal of Finance 56, 6, 2067, December 2001.

"Optimal Portfolio Choice and the Valuation of Illiquid Securities", The Review of Financial Studies 14, 407-431, 2001

"Valuing American Options By Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach" (with Eduardo S. Schwartz), TheReview of Financial Studies 14, 1, 113-147, Spring 2001.

"Financial Innovation and the Role of Derivative Securities: An Empirical Analysis of the Treasury STRIPS Program" (with Mark Grinblatt) Journal of Finance 55, 1415-1436, June 2000.

"The Term Structure of Very Short Term Rates: New Evidence for the Expectations Hypothesis",Journal of Financial Economics58, 397-415, 2000.

"Arbitrage and the Expectations Hypothesis", The Journal of Finance 55, 989-994, 2000.

Throwing Good Money After Bad? Cash Infusions and Distressed Real Estate (with Bradford Cornell and Eduardo Schwartz), Real Estate Economics 24, 23-41, 1996.

Valuing Futures and Options on Volatility(with Andreas Grunbichler), Journal of Banking & Finance 20, 985-1001, 1996.

Placing No-Arbitrage Bounds on the Value of Nonmarketable and Thinly-Traded SecuritiesAdvances in Futures and Options Research 8, 203-228, 1996.

How Much Can Marketability Affect Security Values?The Journal of Finance 50, 1767-1774, 1995.

Option Pricing and the Martingale RestrictionThe Review of Financial Studies 8, 1091-1124, 1995.

A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt (with Eduardo S. Schwartz), The Journal of Finance 50, 789-819, 1995.

Valuing Credit Derivatives (with Eduardo Schwartz) The Journal of Fixed Income 5, 6-12, June 1995.

Hedging Interest Rate Risk with Options on Average Interest RatesThe Journal of Fixed Income, 37-45, March 1995.

Electronic Screen Trading and the Transmission of Information: An Empirical Examination (with Andreas Grunbichler and Eduardo S. Schwartz), Journal of Financial Intermediation 3, 166-187, 1994.

Calling Nonconvertible Debt and the Problem of Related Wealth Transfer Effects (with B.A. Tuckman), Financial Management 23, 21-27, 1994.

The Valuation of Options on Coupon BondsJournal of Banking & Finance 17, 27-42, 1993.

Multiple Equilibria and Term Structure ModelsJournal of Financial Economics 32, 333-344, 1992.

Bid-Ask Spreads and Trading Activity in the S&P 100 Index Options Market (with Thomas J. George), Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 28, 381-397, 1993.

Interest Rate Volatility and Bond Prices (with Eduardo S. Schartz), Financial Analysts Journal 49, 70-74, July-August 1993.

Implementation of the Longstaff-Schwartz Interest Rate Model (with Eduardo S. Schwartz), The Journal of Fixed Income 3, 7-14, September 1993.

An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate (with K.C. Chan, G. Andrew Karolyi, and Anthony B. Sanders), Journal of Finance 47, 1209-1227, 1992.

Interest Rate Volatility and the Term Structure: A Two-Factor General Equilibrium Model (with Eduardo S. Schartz), The Journal of Finance 47, 1259-1282, 1992.

A Two-Factor Interest-Rate Model and Contingent Claims Valuation (with Eduardo S. Schwartz), The Journal of Fixed Income 2, 16-23, December 1992.

Are Negative Option Prices Possible? The Callable U.S. Treasury-Bond PuzzleJournal of Business 65, 571-592, 1992.

General Equilibrium Stock Index Futures Prices: Theory and Empirical Evidence (with Michael L. Hemler), Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 26, 287-308, 1991.

Dual Trading in Futures Markets (with Michael J. Fishman), The Journal of Finance 47, 643-671, 1990.

Time Varying Term Premia and Traditional Hypotheses about the Term StructureThe Journal of Finance 45, 1307-1314, 1990.

Pricing Options with Extendible Maturities: Analysis and ApplicationsThe Journal of Finance 45, 935-957, 1990.

The Valuation of Options on YieldsJournal of Financial Economics 26, 97-121, 1990.

Temporal Aggregation and the Continuous-Time Capital Asset Pricing ModelThe Journal of Finance 44, 871-887, 1989.

A Nonlinear General Equilibrium Model of the Term Structure of Interest RatesJournal of Financial Economics 23, 195-224, 1989.

Pricing Options on Agricultural Futures: An Application of the Constant Elasticity of Variance Option Pricing ModelThe Journal of Futures Markets, 247-258, Summer 1985.