Before we celebrate the U.S. Department of Commerce’s first quarter announcement of a GDP rate of 3.1% as a signal of no imminent recession, Professor Emeritus Edward Leamer suggests looking at what was unusual in the four quarters preceding past recessions. In a paper prepared for the June Forecast, Leamer said “The effect of the first quarter of 2019 data is to increase the recession probabilities from near zero to 15% for the next year and to between 24% and 83% for the year after that.” Indicators he factored into his analysis include weak residential investment, intellectual property, residential construction and consumer durables. Read more to learn about the national outlook, CA outlook, and U.S. China economic report. |