September 2020 Economic Outlook

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UCLA Anderson Forecast
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NEWS

UCLA Anderson Forecast cautiously projects ‘better than expected outcome’

Los Angeles (June 24, 2020) — Just six months ago, the UCLA Anderson Forecast issued a bleak prognosis for the national economy, anticipating the impact of what was still being called the COVID-19 epidemic. Weeks later, as the epidemic became a pandemic, the forecast released the first interim revision in its 68-year history, declaring that the U.S. had entered a recession for the first time since 2008. In June, the forecast team wrote that the nation’s economy was in a “depression-like” crisis and would not return to its 2019 strength anytime soon.

With that negative assessment as prologue, the Anderson Forecast now cautiously offers an economic outlook that includes a “better than expected outcome.” [...]


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US FORECAST

The Post-COVID Economy 

Following a 31.7% annualized decline in real GDP during
the April-June time period (9.1% non-annualized), we
are now forecasting annualized growth of 28.3% for the
July-September time period (6.4% non-annualized). The
decline in the second quarter has been less severe than we
expected, and the recovery, from such a low base, has been
significantly faster than we expected. But don’t be fooled by these seemingly similar numbers. The 31.7% decline is from a much higher base than the 28.3% recovery. After the projected third quarter increase in GDP, it still remains 4.5% below the fourth quarter of 2019. [...]

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Videos

September 2020 Economic Outlook - Forecast for the U.S.

September 2020 Economic Outlook - Forecast for the U.S.
September 2020 Economic Outlook - Forecast for California

September 2020 Economic Outlook - Forecast for California
To V or Not to V, That is the Question

To V or Not to V, That is the Question
From Gig Jobs to Tech Jobs: OVerview in the U.S. and Los Angeles

From Gig Jobs to Tech Jobs: Overview in the U.S. and Los Angeles
Will post-COVID19 Pandemic Finance Look Different for Tech?

Will post-COVID19 Pandemic Finance Look Different for Tech?
Technology Innovation Opportunities in an Era of COVID-19

Technology Innovation Opportunities in an Era of COVID-19
Tech, Inequality and Post-COVID19 Los Angeles

Tech, Inequality and Post-COVID19 Los Angeles
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UCLA Anderson Forecast in Partnership with Easton Technology Management Center and Fink Center for Finance presents

SEPTEMBER 2020 Economic Outlook

The U.S. economy continues to move through the COVID-19 pandemic and the deepest economic decline since the Great Depression. After a partial reopening of the economy, labor markets remain weak, bankruptcies are increasing, virus cases are higher than they were in Q2, and there is renewed concern about an apparent recovery being muted at best. In this environment, technology companies reported strong sales and profits, and the NASDAQ is at a record high. The September UCLA Anderson Forecast will present its updated U.S. and California forecasts and discuss, in conjunction with the Easton Technology Management Center and the Fink Center for Finance & Investments, how the boom in technology will lead the coming expansion and its impact on society and inequality.


Agenda
8:00 - 8:05a Welcome + Introductions
Jerry Nickelsburg, Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast
8:05 - 9:15a UCLA Anderson Forecast for the Nation and California
Jerry Nickelsburg, Ph.D., Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Edward Leamer, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, UCLA Anderson
William Yu, Ph.D., Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Leila Bengali, Ph.D., Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Leo Feler, Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Q + A with the Forecast Team
9:15 - 9:25a Break
9:25 - 10:15a Will post-COVID19 Pandemic Finance Look Different for Tech?
A conversation with Dana Settle, Co-Founder and Partner, Greycroft, hosted by Lori Santikian
10:15 - 11:05a Technology Innovation Opportunities in an Era of COVID-19
A conversation with Scott Brady, Managing Partner, Innovation Endeavors, hosted by Terry Kramer
11:05 - 11:55a Tech, Inequality and Post-COVID19 Los Angeles
A conversation with Damien Goodmon, Founder and Executive Director, Crenshaw Subway Coalition hosted by Jerry Nickelsburg
12:00p Closing Remarks  
Key Topics
Bankruptcies are here and increasing.
Nasdaq is at an all-time high.
Are we in a long term environment of near-zero interest rates?
What are the dangers of inflation from fiscal and monetary policy?
Will the economy falter and extend the recession-the W scenario?
When and how will enough jobs be created to absorb the huge increase in the unemployed?
How are recent government actions (such as unemployment insurance payment increases and the Paycheck Protection Program) affecting California and the outlook for the state?
How has COVID-19 altered venture investing activities?
How will technology-based investments impact the California Economy?
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