September 2019 Economic Outlook

 
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UCLA Anderson Forecast
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NEWS

Slow Growth But No Recession Predicted for U.S. Economy

LOS ANGELES (September 25, 2019) – Stopping just short of predicting a recession in the U.S. through its 2021 forecast horizon, the UCLA Anderson Forecast, in its third quarterly report of 2019, expects the national economy to slow to 0.4% in the second half of 2020, before rebounding to 2.1% in 2021. Given the slow growth rate nationally and the weakness in the housing market, the Forecast expects California's unemployment rate to rise to an average of 5.1% in the fourth quarter of 2020. For the entire years of 2020 and 2021, the unemployment rate in the state is expected to average 4.6%.

The latest UCLA Anderson Forecast for the nation opens by acknowledging a global economy in flux, taking into account the U.S. trade war with China, President Trump's criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell [...]

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CA FORECAST

THe California Growth Spurt Continues to Roll On, But for How Long? 

In the California Report of late, we have been following two trends. First, California unemployment rates, particularly in the largest job markets in the State are extremely low. Therefore, it follows that the rate of hiring should slow down. Not only has that not happened, but the rate of hiring for non-farm payroll jobs has increased by 0.2% from 2018’s hiring rate. However, the growth in the labor force and the growth in total employment, which includes non-payroll and agricultural jobs, has slowed dramatically. Those data indicate that the March benchmark revision will temper the payroll job growth somewhat, but the trend ought not to change. Second, the pace of growth in the U.S. is slowing. GDP in the second quarter of 2019 came in at only 2.0% and in the first quarter the 3.1% growth was supported by unsold goods (inventory accumulation). Not so in California. GDP growth in the first seven months of the year was running at a 4% annual rate [...]
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Videos

The Year of Living Dangerously

U.S. Forecast - The Year of Living Dangerously
Workforce Development for the 21st Century Job Market

U.S. Forecast - Workforce Development for the 21st Century Job Market
Still Signs of a Slowing Economy But No Slowing Yet

CA Forecast - Still Signs of a Slowing Economy But No Slowing Yet
Tech Jobs and the Local Economy

CA Forecast - Tech Jobs and the Local Economy
The Tech Wave: An Endless Summer in Los Angeles?

Keynote Address - The Tech Wave: An Endless Summer in Los Angeles?
Key Technology Trends & Issues for Consideration

Key Technology Trends & Issues for Consideration
September 2019 Forecast Panel

Expert Panel - Value Creation & Destruction in a Changing LA?
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UCLA Anderson Forecast in Partnership with The Easton Center for Technology management present

SEPTEMBER 2019 Economic Outlook

Technology is transforming the US economy and Los Angeles, particularly Silicon Beach, is certainly experiencing the impact. As we enter the third decade of the 21st Century, what does the recent success of Silicon Beach in West LA tell us about the future landscape and opportunities in the rest of the City? Is workforce development an impediment to further growth? What kinds of actions will industry, entrepreneurs, academia and the City need to take to ensure future success? The September UCLA Anderson Forecast conference will discuss these issues as well as the economic outlook and prospect for a near term recession.

Agenda
7:30 - 8:30a Registration + Breakfast
8:30 - 8:35a Welcome + Introductions
Jerry Nickelsburg, Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast
8:35 - 10:00a UCLA Anderson Forecast for the Nation and California
David Shulman (MBA '66, PhD '75), Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Jerry Nickelsburg, Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Workforce Development for a Post Industrial Economy
Edward Leamer, Professor Emeritus, UCLA Anderson School
The Production of a Tech-Savvy LA Workforce
William Yu, Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Q + A with the Forecast Team
10:00 - 10:15a Break
10:15 - 10:45a Keynote Address
Adam Miller ('94), Founder and CEO, Cornerstone OnDemand
10:45 - 11:05a Key Technology Trends: The Implication for Los Angeles
Moderator: Terry Kramer, Director, Easton Technology Management Center & Adjunct Professor of Decisions, Operations and Technology Management, UCLA Anderson School
11:05 - 11:50p Expert Panel: Value Creation & Destruction in a Changing LA?
Moderator: Terry Kramer, Director, Easton Technology Management Center & Adjunct Professor of Decisions, Operations and Technology Management, UCLA Anderson School
Maria Salinas, President and CEO, Los Angeles Area Chamber of Commerce
Marcos Gonzalez, Managing Partner, Vamos Ventures
Allen Narcisse, SoCal Regional Director, Lyft
Key Topics
Does the Fed's July rate cut signal "one and done" or is it the start of a new easing cycle?
How exposed is the California Economy to the U.S./China trade war?
Is the slowdown in housing over with the recent Fed interest rate cut?
Will manufacturing return to California?
What areas of technological innovation will be most promising in Los Angeles?
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