September 2016 Economic Outlook

UCLA Anderson Forecast


UCLA Anderson Forecast Looks at Economic Growth Amid Presidential Elections

UCLA Anderson Forecast’s quarterly outlook for the national economy foresees real gross domestic product growth in the 2.0% to 2.5% range throughout 2017 and 2018, where it has been for the past seven years. With the economy approaching full employment, employment growth is expected to slow from what has been a consistent 200,000 jobs per month to about [...]

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Money, Weed, and War!

In the last California Report we discussed the onset of full employment and what that meant for growth in California going forward. Unemployment rates relative to the U.S. still remain elevated but that is a direct consequence of good labor markets drawing more workers into labor markets. In the latest jobs report, 40% of all jobs in the U.S. were generated in California. For a State that ranks at the bottom of “business friendly,” this consistent [...]

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National Forecast
California Forecast
Los Angeles Forecast

September 2016 Economic Outlook

The theme of the conference is the presidential election. The objective is to provide for the audience the view of the economics profession with regard to specific economic policy proposals by the candidates. This will not be advocacy, but rather that the moderator and discussants in the three conversations will relate research on the topics raised by the moderator as it informs the potential impacts of the policy proposals. It is possible that a proposal is sufficiently different from that which has been studied, that the discussion will center around what economic theory might suggest, but will also make clear that there is no empirical evidence as yet.

7:30 - 8:30a Registration
8:30 - 8:35a Welcome and Introductions
8:35 - 9:30a Part I: UCLA Anderson Forecast for the Nation and State
David Shulman, Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Jerry Nickelsburg, Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
William Yu, Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
9:30 - 10:15a Part II: A Discussion on Small Business
Kathy Bromage, Chief Marketing & Communications Officer, The Hartford
10:15 - 10:30a Break
Part III: Conversations on the Presidential Election
10:30 - 11:00a Health Care Policy
Moderator: Anthony Barrueta, Sr. Vice President, Government Affairs, Kaiser Permanente
H.E. Frech, Professor of Economics, UCSB
Fred Zimmerman, Professor, Jonathan and Karin Fielding School of Public Health, UCLA
11:00 - 11:30a Trade Policy
Moderator: Edward Leamer, Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Stephen Cheung, President, World Trade Center Los Angeles
Charles Wolf, Jr., Distinguished Chair in International Economics; Senior Economic Adviser; Professor, Pardee RAND Graduate School
11:30 - 12:00p Labor Policy
Moderator: Till Von Wachter, Associate Professor of Economics, UCLA
David Neumark, Professor of Economics and Director, Economic Self-Sufficiency Policy Research Institute, University of California, Irvine
Wesley Yin, Associate Professor of Public Policy and Management, UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs
Key Topics
What will the presidential election mean for the economy?
With the weakest first-half growth in five years, has the economy stalled?
How Long will the Fed keep rates historically low?


UCLA Anderson Forecast