March 2021 Economic Outlook

NEWS

UCLA Anderson Forecast Predicts Near-Record Growth as Economy Recovers

In California, recovery comes faster than the rest of the U.S.

Los Angeles (March 10, 2020) — The first quarterly UCLA Anderson Forecast of 2021 expects robust growth for the U.S. and California as the COVID-19 pandemic abates.

One year ago, the World Health Organization declared the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic, and subsequent efforts to stop the spread of the virus led to an unprecedented decline of the U.S. economy as non-essential in-person activities came to a halt. For all of 2020, real GDP fell by 3.5%, the worst annual decline in more than 60 years.

The Anderson Forecast’s December 2020 report offered hope of a strong recovery, dependent on mass vaccinations. With vaccines becoming widely available, the March 2021 forecast now anticipates such a recovery, as well as the establishment of a new post-pandemic norm for the economy.” [...]

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U.S. FORECAST

Robust Economic Growth and Recovery After a Dreadful Year

GDP: Following a 3.5% decline in real GDP in 2020, we are forecasting 6.3% growth in 2021, 4.6% growth in 2022, and 2.7% growth in 2023. These rates of growth are considerably higher than the 2.3% we averaged during the recov-ery from the Great Recession between 2010 and 2019. We expect real GDP to surpass its 2019 peak by the end of Q2 2021 and to surpass pre-pandemic trends by Q1 2022. Real GDP then grows slightly faster than pre-pandemic trends through the end of our forecast period in 2023.

Unemployment: We forecast that the unemployment rate will decline from an average of 6.7% in Q4 2020 to 5.2% in Q4 2021, 4.1% in Q4 2022, and 3.7% in Q4 2023. Recovering labor force participation will slow the decline in the unemployment rate.

Inflation: Our forecast is that annual core PCE inflation will be 1.9% in 2021, peak slightly above 2% in 2022, and [...]

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Videos

March 2021 Economic Outlook - U.S. Outlook

March 2021 Economic Outlook - Minimum Wage

March 2021 Economic Outlook - National Minimum Wage

March 2021 Economic Outlook - California Outlook

March 2021 Economic Outlook - Keynote Address

March 2021 Economic Outlook - Expert Panel

March 2021 Economic Outlook - Health Care in America

March 2021 Economic Outlook - Health in America: What Explains the Variation of COVID-19 Death Rates Across the Nation?

March 2021 Economic Outlook - Trends in the Health Care Industry, Before and During the 2020 Pandemic Recession

UCLA Anderson Forecast In COllaboration with
UCLA Health presents

March 2021 Economic Outlook

There is a new administration in Washington and the Pandemic still rages. Economic relief, stimulus and infrastructure spending proposals are going to be debated in Congress. And the pandemic will have profound implications for the health care industry including technology, tele-medicine, and supply chains. How these will affect the economic outlook and the business of health care are topics to be explored at the March UCLA Anderson Forecast conference.

Agenda

8:30 - 8:40a	Welcome + Introductions Jerry Nickelsburg, Ph.D., Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast
8:40 - 9:45a	UCLA Anderson Forecast for the Nation and California Leo Feler, Ph.D., Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast Jerry Nickelsburg, Ph.D., Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast Edward Leamer, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, UCLA Anderson William Yu, Ph.D., Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast Leila Bengali, Ph.D., Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
	Q + A with the Forecast Team
9:45 - 9:55a	Break
9:55 - 10:40a	Keynote Address Sandra R. Hernández, MD, President & CEO, California Health Care Foundation
10:40 - 11:25a	Panel: Pandemic Induced Change in the Business of Health Care Moderator: Leila Bengali, Ph.D., Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast Elaine Batchlor, M.D., CEO, Martin Luther King Jr. Community Hospital Desert Horse-Grant, Senior Director, Research and Innovation, UCLA Health & Co-Executive Director, UCLA Biodesign Omkar Kulkarni, MPH, Chief Innovation Officer, Children's Hospital Murray Ross, Ph.D., Vice President, Kaiser Foundation Health Plan, Inc.; Director, Kaiser Permanente Institute for Health Policy Leah Vriesman, Ph.D., Executive Director, Executive Education Programs in Health Policy and Management, Center for Healthcare Management, UCLA Fielding School of Public Health
11:25 - 11:30a	Closing Remarks Jerry Nickelsburg, Ph.D., Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast

Key Topics

	As more people get vaccinated, what will be the path of the economic recovery?
	What will be the economic impact of the Biden Administration's fiscal stimulus and infrastructure programs?
	What explains the variation of death rates due to COVID-19 across the country?
	How were economic forces driving trends in the health care sector before the 2020 recession?
	How has the 2020 recession changed or accelerated health care trends?