June 2020 Economic Outlook

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UCLA Anderson Forecast
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NEWS

Uncertainty Clouds California Economy; State’s Recovery Will Mirror That of the Nation

Los Angeles (June 24, 2020) — In its March quarterly forecast, the UCLA Anderson Forecast revised its outlook for the U.S. economy downward because of the expected impact of COVID-19, which was then still being referred to as an epidemic. Two weeks later, as the economy began shutting down because of the pandemic, the Forecast released the first revision in its 68-year history to assert that the U.S. economy was already in recession.

Now, in its second quarterly forecast of 2020, the Forecast team states that the global health crisis has “morphed into a Depression-like crisis” and that it does not expect the national economy to return to its 2019 fourth-quarter peak until 2023. [...]


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US FORECAST

The Post-COVID Economy 

Induced by the COVID-19 pandemic, the economy had a great fall during the March-May time period. Nonfarm employment declined by 22 million nonfarm jobs and the unemployment rate skyrocketed from 3.5% in February to 14.7% in April. Make no mistake, the public health crisis of the pandemic morphed into a depression-like crisis in the economy. To call this crisis a recession is a misnomer. We are forecasting a 42% annual rate of decline in real GDP for the current quarter followed by a “Nike swoosh” recovery that won’t return the level of output to prior fourth quarter of 2019 peak until early 2023. (See Figure 1) On a fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter basis, real GDP will decline by 8.6% and then increase by 5.3% and 4.9% in 2021 and 2022, respectively. [...]

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Videos

June 2020 Economic Outlook - Forecast for the U.S. and CA

June 2020 Economic Outlook - Forecast for the U.S. and CA
Allen Matkins/UCLA Anderson Forecast CRE Survey Results

Allen Matkins/UCLA Anderson Forecast CRE Survey Results with John Tipton
What Will Cities Look Like Post-Pandemic?

What Will Cities Look Like Post-Pandemic? with Richard Florida
Housing Market Analysis

Housing Market Analysis with Ivy Zelman
California Home Affordability

California Home Affordability with Conor Dougherty
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UCLA Anderson Forecast in Partnership with UCLA Ziman Center presents

JUNE 2020 Economic Outlook

June 24th will be the first quarterly Forecast conference since our recession call mid-March. Much has happened since then. With a record high layoff/furlough rate, record high support/stimulus packages and public health policy interventions the economy is in unchartered waters.

The depth of the recession will be worse than anything since the 1929-1933 crash. But what about the expansion? Will it be slow as in the aftermath of 2008/2009 or fast like 1983? And how will the economic landscape, now scarred by the pandemic, change? In addition to this broad focus, in conjunction with the Ziman Center for Real Estate, featured guest speakers will weigh in on the pandemic and recession’s impact on housing markets.


Agenda
8:30 - 8:40a Welcome + Introductions
Jerry Nickelsburg, Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast
8:40 - 9:50a UCLA Anderson Forecast for the Nation and California
David Shulman (MBA '66, Ph.D. '75), Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Jerry Nickelsburg, Ph.D., Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Edward Leamer, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, UCLA Anderson
William Yu, Ph.D., Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Leila Bengali, Ph.D., Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Q + A with the Forecast Team
9:50 - 10:10p Allen Matkins/UCLA Anderson Forecast CRE Survey Results
A conversation with John Tipton, Partner at Allen Matkins, hosted by Jerry Nickelsburg
10:10 - 10:20a Break
10:20 - 10:50a What Will Cities Look Like Post-Pandemic?
A conversation with Richard Florida, Professor, Urbanist and Writer, hosted by Jerry Nickelsburg
10:50 - 11:10a Housing Market Analysis
A conversation with Ivy Zelman, CEO, Zelman & Associates, hosted by David Shulman
11:10 - 11:30p California Home Affordability  
A conversation with Conor Dougherty, Economics Reporter at New York Times, hosted by Edward Leamer
Key Topics
What will the Post-COVID economy look like?
Is the 35%-40% estimated annualized decline in the real GDP represent the bottom, or will the decline continue into the third quarter?
Housing was booming going into March. Will the current COVID induced drop in housing activity be temporary or something more fundamental?
Will the COVID pandemic signal an end to the urban housing boom and a shift back to the suburbs?
How are residential real estate markets across the U.S. and in California responding to the coronavirus pandemic?
Could there be unintended consequences of California's new tenant protection law on residential real estate markets?
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