

NEWS
Economy May be Weaker than it Looks
LOS ANGELES (June 5, 2019) – In its second report for 2019, the UCLA Anderson Forecast offers new recession predictions based on the most recent GDP data and the most recent bond market data.
While the U.S Department of Commerce’s release of a 3.1% growth rate for GDP in the first quarter was celebrated as evidence there is no recession in the near future, a closer look at the details behind that 3.1% number leaves little reason for celebration. Similarly, recent employment data may not appear as robust as reported, which affects the outlooks for the nation and California.
The current forecast opens with a paper on research by UCLA Anderson Professor Emeritus Edward Leamer that searches for recession precursors. “The first step toward making a recession forecast is looking at what was unusual in the four quarters before recessions,” he writes. [...]
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CA FORECAST
A New Monthly Indicator of the CA Economy
As predicted, the California economy is slowing down. The State is, quite simply, running out of people to be employed. The unemployment rate from Marin County to Santa Clara County is below 2.5%, from Sonoma through the East Bay below 3%, and in Southern California, with the exception of Los Angeles, at or below the U.S. rate of 3.6%. To be sure, the inland regions are not doing as well by this measure, and the impact of the trade war with China is beginning to be felt. Nevertheless, economic prosperity has clearly become the norm in California today.
These contemporaneous measures of the health of the California economy are primarily based upon employment statistics, available a short time after the end of the month. However, employment is only part of the picture. The slow growing and contracting sectos such as non-durable goods manufacturing and retail and rapid growing sectors such as information and scientific and technical [...]
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UCLA Anderson Forecast in Partnership with The UCLA Ziman Center for Real Estate present
June 2019 Economic Outlook
While the forecast of 2019 likely escaping a recession is not much changed, commercial real estate, having enjoyed a decade long expansion since the financial crisis, is headed for a "crunch" with increasing supply coming from the flow of investment dollars searching for yield encountering a slowing increase in employment growth (from 200,000 down to 100,000 jobs a month). The panel will also discuss the potential impact of the proposed rent control legislation and split roll property tax proposals.
7:30 - 8:30a | Registration + Breakfast |
8:30 - 8:35a | Welcome + Introductions Jerry Nickelsburg, Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast |
8:35 - 9:45a | UCLA Anderson Forecast for the Nation and California David Shulman (MBA '66, PhD '75), Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast Jerry Nickelsburg, Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast Edward Leamer, Professor Emeritus, UCLA Anderson School William Yu, Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast |
9:45 - 10:00a | Q + A with the Forecast Team |
10:00 - 10:15a | Allen Matkins / UCLA Anderson Forecast CRE Survey Results A conversation with John Tipton, Partner at Allen Matkins, hosted by Jerry Nickelsburg |
10:15 - 10:30a | Break |
10:30 - 10:55a | Keynote Address Timur Tecimer, President and CEO, Overton Moore Properties |
10:55 - 11:45a | Expert Panel: Commercial Real Estate Moderator: David Shulman (MBA '66, PhD '75), Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast Paul Habibi, Continuing Lecturer of Finance and Real Estate, UCLA Anderson School Marianne Lowenthal (BA '82, MBA '85), Executive Vice President, National Development and Acquisitions, Combined Properties Michael R. Coppin, Vice President, Leasing - Southern California, McCarthy Cook & Co. Murray McQueen, President, Tribune Real Estate Holdings, LLC |
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Did the first quarter stock market rebound signal an "all clear" for the economy? |
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Will the recent drop in interest rates trigger a surge in housing activity? |
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How will commercial real estate fare in a slower growth economy? |