June 2019 Economic Outlook

 
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UCLA Anderson Forecast
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NEWS

Economy May be Weaker than it Looks

LOS ANGELES (June 5, 2019) – In its second report for 2019, the UCLA Anderson Forecast offers new recession predictions based on the most recent GDP data and the most recent bond market data.

While the U.S Department of Commerce’s release of a 3.1% growth rate for GDP in the first quarter was celebrated as evidence there is no recession in the near future, a closer look at the details behind that 3.1% number leaves little reason for celebration. Similarly, recent employment data may not appear as robust as reported, which affects the outlooks for the nation and California.

The current forecast opens with a paper on research by UCLA Anderson Professor Emeritus Edward Leamer that searches for recession precursors. “The first step toward making a recession forecast is looking at what was unusual in the four quarters before recessions,” he writes. [...]

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CA FORECAST

A New Monthly Indicator of the CA Economy

As predicted, the California economy is slowing down. The State is, quite simply, running out of people to be employed. The unemployment rate from Marin County to Santa Clara County is below 2.5%, from Sonoma through the East Bay below 3%, and in Southern California, with the exception of Los Angeles, at or below the U.S. rate of 3.6%. To be sure, the inland regions are not doing as well by this measure, and the impact of the trade war with China is beginning to be felt. Nevertheless, economic prosperity has clearly become the norm in California today.

These contemporaneous measures of the health of the California economy are primarily based upon employment statistics, available a short time after the end of the month. However, employment is only part of the picture. The slow growing and contracting sectos such as non-durable goods manufacturing and retail and rapid growing sectors such as information and scientific and technical [...]

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Videos

Fuzzy Data, a Slowing Economy and a Trade War

U.S. Forecast - Fuzzy Data, a Slowing Economy and a Trade War
Recession Risks

U.S. Forecast - Recession Risks
Signs of a Slowing Economy

CA Forecast - Signs of a Slowing Economy
Production Costs in the Construction Industry

U.S. Forecast - Production Costs in the Construction Industry
Allen Matkins | UCLA Anderson Forecast Commercial Real Estate Survey Results - A conversation with John Tipton

Allen Matkins | UCLA Anderson Forecast Commercial Real Estate Survey Results - A conversation with John Tipton
Industrial Markets

Keynote Address - Industrial Markets
June 2019 Forecast Panel

Expert Panel - Commercial Real Estate
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UCLA Anderson Forecast in Partnership with The UCLA Ziman Center for Real Estate present

June 2019 Economic Outlook

While the forecast of 2019 likely escaping a recession is not much changed, commercial real estate, having enjoyed a decade long expansion since the financial crisis, is headed for a "crunch" with increasing supply coming from the flow of investment dollars searching for yield encountering a slowing increase in employment growth (from 200,000 down to 100,000 jobs a month). The panel will also discuss the potential impact of the proposed rent control legislation and split roll property tax proposals.

Agenda
7:30 - 8:30a Registration + Breakfast
8:30 - 8:35a Welcome + Introductions
Jerry Nickelsburg, Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast
8:35 - 9:45a UCLA Anderson Forecast for the Nation and California
David Shulman (MBA '66, PhD '75), Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Jerry Nickelsburg, Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Edward Leamer, Professor Emeritus, UCLA Anderson School
William Yu, Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
9:45 - 10:00a Q + A with the Forecast Team
10:00 - 10:15a Allen Matkins / UCLA Anderson Forecast CRE Survey Results
A conversation with John Tipton, Partner at Allen Matkins, hosted by Jerry Nickelsburg
10:15 - 10:30a Break
10:30 - 10:55a Keynote Address
Timur Tecimer, President and CEO, Overton Moore Properties
10:55 - 11:45a Expert Panel: Commercial Real Estate
Moderator: David Shulman (MBA '66, PhD '75), Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Paul Habibi, Continuing Lecturer of Finance and Real Estate, UCLA Anderson School
Marianne Lowenthal (BA '82, MBA '85), Executive Vice President, National Development and Acquisitions, Combined Properties
Michael R. Coppin, Vice President, Leasing - Southern California, McCarthy Cook & Co.
Murray McQueen, President, Tribune Real Estate Holdings, LLC
Key Topics
Did the first quarter stock market rebound signal an "all clear" for the economy?
Will the recent drop in interest rates trigger a surge in housing activity?
How will commercial real estate fare in a slower growth economy?
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