December 2020 Economic Outlook

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UCLA Anderson Forecast
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NEWS

Anticipating a Coronavirus Vaccine, UCLA Anderson Forecast Expects Robust Economic Recovery to Begin in Spring 2021

In California, the rebound will be led by tech, residential construction and logistics sector

Los Angeles (Dec 9, 2020) — The quarterly UCLA Anderson Forecast anticipates positive economic news on the horizon.

After the COVID-19 pandemic reached the U.S., the Anderson Forecast’s March report was followed by two downward revisions, and the June and September releases charted the pandemic’s impact on the California and national economies. The December forecast offers hope of a robust recovery from the current recession, based on the assumption that mass vaccinations would clear a path toward a new, productive normalcy for many industries.

However, that good news is tempered by predictions of a rough winter, as economic growth remains stalled by measures intended to prevent rising spread of virus cases until vaccines become widely available. ” [...]


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CA FORECAST

The Economic/Pandemic Question: To Close or Not to Close? 

  • - As 2020 draws to a close, labor markets in California are weaker than those in the U.S. overall.
  • - Non-pharmaceutical interventions (such as mask mandates and restrictions on business operations) tend to be more restrictive in CA than elsewhere.
  • - Across the U.S. in October 2020, states with more restrictive non-pharmaceutical interventions tended to have higher unemployment rates, though historical evidence suggests that more restrictive non-pharmaceutical interventions may not significantly affect economic activity in the near term and may help in the long term.
  • - Looking to the future, the forecast for the state is for the technology sectors, residential construction, and logistics to lead the recovery, and for California post-pandemic to grow faster than the U.S.

Since the pandemic-induced recession began last March, we have said that the course of the pandemic, and the public health policy response to it, is critical to the economic forecast. As well, we have pointed out that we do not know what the future will bring with respect to the pandemic. What we do know is that the pandemic is raging across the [...]

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Online Webinar
Wednesday, December 9, 2020 | 8:30 a.m. - 11:30 a.m. Pacific


Watch Live Here


Broadcast begins at 8:30am, December 9, 2020
 

Videos

December 2020 Economic Outlook - U.S. Forecast: A Gloomy COVID Winter and an Exuberant Vaccine Spring

December 2020 Economic Outlook - U.S. Forecast: A Gloomy COVID Winter and an Exuberant Vaccine Spring
December 2020 Economic Outlook - California Forecast: To Close or Not to Close?

December 2020 Economic Outlook - California Forecast: To Close or Not to Close?
December 2020 Economic Outlook - Sea Level Rise and Its Impact on California Housing Markets

December 2020 Economic Outlook - Sea Level Rise and Its Impact on California Housing Markets
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December 2020 Economic Outlook - More Water from the Ocean, Less From the Sky - Water Policy and Business

December 2020 Economic Outlook - More Water from the Ocean, Less From the Sky - Water Policy and Business
December 2020 Economic Outlook - Trends in Solar Panel Adoption

December 2020 Economic Outlook - Business Adaptation to Climate Change
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December 2020 Economic Outlook - Does a Fiscal Stimulus Work?

December 2020 Economic Outlook - Does a Fiscal Stimulus Work? Two Paths to Travel
December 2020 Economic Outlook - Trends in Solar Panel Adoption

December 2020 Economic Outlook - Trends in Solar Panel Adoption
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UCLA Anderson Forecast In COllaboration with
UCLA Institute of the Environment & Sustainability and Impact@Anderson presents

DECEMBER 2020 Economic Outlook

Drought, wildfires, flooding, heatwaves, and more will impact business decisions this decade. Looking ahead from the short-term forecasts, we consider how these events will affect where people will live and how business will be conducted as the U.S. and California adapt to new climate realities. The December UCLA Anderson Forecast will present its first post-election forecast and host two panels with experts on water, energy, productivity, and adaptation.


Agenda
8:30 - 8:40a Welcome + Introductions
Jerry Nickelsburg, Ph.D., Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast
8:40 - 9:45a UCLA Anderson Forecast for the Nation and California
Leo Feler, Ph.D., Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Jerry Nickelsburg, Ph.D., Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Edward Leamer, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, UCLA Anderson
William Yu, Ph.D., Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Leila Bengali, Ph.D., Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Q + A with the Forecast Team
9:45 - 9:55a Break
9:55 - 10:40a Panel: More Water From the Ocean, Less From the Sky - Water Policy and Business
Moderator: Eric Hoek, Ph.D., UCLA Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Director, UCLA Sustainable LA Grand Challenge
Kathy Jacobs, Director, Center for Climate Change and Adaptation, University of Arizona
Ellen Hanak, Ph.D., Vice President and Director - Water Policy, PPIC
Mark Gold, Ph.D., Executive Director, Ocean Protection Council, Deputy Secretary for Ocean and Coastal Policy, California Natural Resources Agency
David Osias, Partner, Allen Matkins
10:40 - 11:25a Panel: Business Adaptation to Climate Change
Moderator: Magali Delmas, Ph.D., Professor, UCLA Anderson and Faculty Director, Impact
Carla Peterman, Ph.D., Senior Vice President, Strategy & Regulatory Affairs, Southern California Edison
Alex Bernhardt, Director, Marsh & McLennan Advantage Group
Lauren Riley, Managing Director, Global Environmental Affairs and Sustainability, United Airlines
Nora Pankratz, Post-Doctoral Research Fellow, UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs
11:25 - 11:30a Closing Remarks
Jerry Nickelsburg, Ph.D., Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Key Topics
How will the election affect macroeconomic policy?
Is a 2021 stimulus package likely?
Is the recovery sustainable in the near-term?
Will the boom in housing in the U.S. and California continue?
What is the prospect for a return of tourism to California?
Will the California economy continue to outperform the U.S.?
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