

NEWS
UCLA Anderson Forecast Upgrades Outlook for the Nation as Financial Conditions Improve
LOS ANGELES (December 4, 2019) – Citing “improved financial conditions, a better housing and employment outlook, some relaxation of trade tensions and a modest improvement in business fixed investment,” the UCLA Anderson Forecast has upgraded its national economic forecast through 2020. Instead of calling for 1% real growth for 2020, the Forecast now expects growth to be on the order of 1.7% on a fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter basis.
“After going on a separate track from business investment, we forecast a slowdown in consumer spending, largely coming from much weaker automobile sales as credit tightens in that sector,” writes senior economist David Shulman in an essay titled “The Two-Track Economy.” “Overall, the interest rate environment, aside from auto credit, will remain benign,” Shulman writes. “But make no mistake, although we have lowered the risk of a recession, the second half of 2020 remains problematic for the economy.” [...]
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US FORECAST
The Two Track Economy
We have become a bit more optimistic since our last forecast. Several of our worries have been mitigated. They include:
* After being locked in a 21-month trading range, stock prices have broken out and made decisive new highs.
UCLA Anderson Forecast in Partnership with The Fink Center for Finance & Investments present
December 2019 Economic Outlook
The volatility of financial markets in 2019 has given pause with respect to recession probabilities and the future of asset markets. Will the whipsaw of bond and equity prices continue? How will the Fed react in an economy with good employment numbers, but elevated risks. The December 2019 UCLA Anderson Forecast will untangle many aspects of these questions, including the relationship between the financial and real estate sectors as it looks to the economic and financial outlook for 2020.
7:30 - 8:30a | Registration + Breakfast |
8:30 - 8:40a | Welcome + Introductions Jerry Nickelsburg, Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast |
8:40 - 10:05a | UCLA Anderson Forecast for the Nation and California David Shulman (MBA '66, Ph.D. '75), Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast Jerry Nickelsburg, Ph.D., Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast Edward Leamer, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, UCLA Anderson School William Yu, Ph.D., Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast Leila Bengali, Ph.D., Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast |
Q + A with the Forecast Team | |
10:05 - 10:20a | Break |
10:20 - 10:50a | Keynote Address Vijay Srinivasan ('01), Chief Investment Officer, Scarsdale Capital LLC |
10:50 - 11:45p | Expert Panel: Volatility of Financial Markets Moderator: David Shulman (MBA '66, Ph.D. '75), Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast Joseph Brusuelas, Chief Economist, RSM US LLP Mark Garmaise, Ph.D., Professor of Finance, UCLA Anderson School Arthur Hovsepian ('06), Principal, Payden & Rygel Jia Ye, Ph.D., Partner and Co-Chief Investment Officer, First Quadrant |
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What is a recession and who needs to worry about it? |
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What are the prospects for a recession soon?? |
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Will the 10-year bull market in stocks continue into the new decade? |
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Have interest rates bottomed or are they headed for zero? |
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Is California's GDP still growing? |
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When will the housing market recover? |
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Can California solve the housing affordability crisis in the next few years? |