December 2018 Economic Outlook

NEWS

UCLA Anderson Forecast Sees the Downshift to Slower Growth. Is a Recession Looming?

LOS ANGELES (December 5, 2018) – UCLA Anderson Forecast’s final quarterly report for 2018 indicates that the economy is in the process of downshifting from 3% growth in real GDP this year to 2% in 2019, and 1% in 2020. Recognizing that the nation and California are experiencing full employment, the Forecast asserts that 3% quarterly growth is not sustainable. With the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, trade tensions rising, the impact of the fiscal stimulus from tax cuts and spending increases waning, financial markets will likely experience increased turbulence. [...]
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CALIFORNIA FORECAST:

Will the Tech-Boom Falter if NASDAQ Enters a Long-Term Bear Market?

It has long been thought that the rapid growth in the California economy has been driven by the tech industry. There is ample evidence to support the notion, but there is also evi-dence that might question it. For one, there is no tech sector in the sense of being a well-defined industry classification. The standard classification of industrial and service sectors is the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) born after three years of statistical study in the late 1997. [...]
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Videos

Downshifting to Slower Growth

Continued Growth but, is a Falling NASDAQ a Risk?

Trade Wars

Employment in the Financial Industry

The Outlook from the Other Side of the Hudson

Survival in an Elevated Risk Environment

UCLA Anderson Forecast in Partnership with The Fink Center for Finance and

investment present

December 2018 Economic Outlook

As the economy enters 2019 on a good (economic) note, there are changes ahead in financial markets. The Fed is raising rates, The ECB may raise rates as well. Dodd-Frank changes are in the winds; and there will be a new Congress. In California, there are trade wars and a new governor. The UCLA Anderson Forecast takes a look at equity and bond markets and the implications of these end-of-year changes in its release of the new forecast and its annual outlook for financial markets.

Agenda

7:30 - 8:30a	Registration + Breakfast
8:30 - 8:35a	Welcome + Introductions Jerry Nickelsburg, Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast
8:35 - 9:45a	UCLA Anderson Forecast for the Nation and California David Shulman, Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast Jerry Nickelsburg, Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast Edward Leamer, Professor Emeritus, UCLA Anderson School William Yu, Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
9:45 - 10:00a	Q + A with the Forecast Team
10:00 - 10:15a	Break
10:15 - 10:55a	The Outlook fom the Other Side of the Hudson - A Conversation with David Kostin David Kostin, Chief Equity Strategist, Goldman Sachs David Shulman, Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
10:55 - 11:45a	Panel: Survival in an Elevated Risk Environment Moderator: David Shulman, Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast Edward Gonzalez, VP & Senior Investment Strategist, Wells Fargo Private Bank Asha Joshi, Managing Principal, Payden & Rygel Ivo Welch, Distinguished Professor of Finance, J. Fred Weston Chair in Finance, UCLA Anderson School Gilda Youdeem, EVP Enterprise Risk Analytics, Banc of California

Key Topics

	Does the recent increased volatility in the stock market signal an end to the bull market that began in 2009 or is it only a sideways correction on the road to new heights in 2019?
	Is the Fed on course to raise its policy rate four times between now and the end of 2019?
	Will real GDP growth wane from its heady 3% pace in 2018 to 2% in 2019 and 1% in 2020?
	The trade war(s): Any California effect yet?
	After the election: A new governor and new policy?
	What are the tariff effects when trade is balanced?
	What are the tariff effects when imports greatly exceed exports?
	What is the best way to protect U.S. intellectual property?
	How did employment change in the financial industry?
	Did robots replace traders and fund managers?
	What is the outlook for finance job growth?