December 2017 Economic Outlook

 
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UCLA Anderson Forecast
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NEWS

A Downshift in Growth Expected for the Nation and California

UCLA Anderson Forecast’s final quarterly report for 2017 is somewhat mixed, as the United States awaits the outcomes of a number of initiatives and proposals that could affect the economy.   [...]
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NATIONAL FORECAST:

Sunny 2018, Cloudy  2019

Of a sudden, propelled by strength (8% quarterly growth) in equipment spending, the economy is growing at a 3% clip and the near-term outlook has become decidedly sunny. Moreover, the 3% pace of growth is expected to continue through the second quarter of 2018. However, as the unemployment rate drops below 4% and employment growth stalls in the face of a labor shortage, economic growth will drop back to the 2% growth rate we have been used to since the end of the financial crisis eight long years ago. Indeed, by the end of the forecast horizon in 2019 real GDP growth could very well be running at a rate below 1.5% as the outlook becomes cloudy.  [...]
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Videos

Sunny 2018, Cloudy 2019

Sunny 2018, Cloudy 2019
A Downshift in Growth Foretold

A Downshift in Growth Foretold
City Growth, Cost of Living, and Human Capital

City Growth, Cost of Living, and Human Capital
Keynote Address: Equity Strategy

Keynote Address:
Equity Strategy
Expert Panel: Financial Outlook for 2018

Expert Panel: Financial Outlook for 2018
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UCLA Anderson Forecast in Partnership with the Fink Center for Finance & Investments present

December 2017 Economic Outlook

The equity bull market on Wall Street continues to roll along. Will stocks continue to rise in 2018, or is a major correction looming? Bond yields have been trading at historically low levels for nearly a decade. Will the era of low bond yields continue, or will interest rates normalize, sending 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yields to well above 3%? With wholesale changes in the Federal Reserve Board coming in 2018, will the Fed continue on its moderate pace toward interest rate normalization or will the markets be surprised?

Agenda
7:30 - 8:30a Registration + Breakfast
8:30 - 8:40a Welcome + Introductions
8:40 - 9:30a UCLA Anderson Forecast for the Nation, California and Los Angeles
Jerry Nickelsburg, Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast
David Shulman, Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
William Yu, Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
9:30 - 9:40a Q + A with the Forecast Team
9:40 - 9:55a Break
10:00 - 10:30a Keynote Address
Christopher Harvey, Head of Equity Strategy, Wells Fargo Securities
10:30 - 11:30a Panel - Financial Markets Outlook
Moderator: David Shulman, Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Christopher Harvey, Head of Equity Strategy, Wells Fargo Securities
Christopher Schwarz, Associate Professor, Finance, UCI Paul Merage School of Business
Ivo Welch, Distinguished Professor of Finance, J. Fred Weston Chair in Finance, UCLA Anderson School
Harlan B. Spinner, Senior Vice President, UBS Private Wealth Management
Key Topics
Is the slowdown in California for real?
What does the Federal tax bill mean for California?
How is Los Angeles economy doing?
What is happening with human capital and migration in Los Angeles?
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