November 2007


The New York Times

The Economic Effect of the Writer's Strike
According to a new report from UCLA Anderson School of Management, the economic impact of a long strike by screenwriters would not be as high as most experts have predicted.  Written by UCLA Anderson Forecast economist Jerry Nickelsburg, the report describes the strike's likely effect as "modest and transitory."  This article appeared on Nov. 30.

The Sacramento Bee
Push to Save Homes Grows
California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has made a deal with mortgage lenders to freeze low interest rates for subprime homeowners who reside in their property, giving some struggling homeowners a much needed respite.  According to Stuart Gabriel, professor of finance at UCLA Anderson School of Management and director of the school's Ziman Center for Real Estate, lenders agreed to the plan because they recognize that working deals with troubled borrowers will help them protect their own economic interests in a falling market.  This article appeared on Nov. 30.

Daily Bruin
Alumni Create Test Prep Company
How did UCLA Anderson School of Management graduates Ramit Varma and Jake Neuberg steer their SAT test prep company, Revolution Prep, into becoming one of the top test preparatory companies in the nation?   "They were willing to give scholarships and positioned themselves as a company that was willing to help kids succeed regardless of whether or not they were making money ... which puts them more on the side of the students," says Ely Dahan, professor of marketing at UCLA Anderson School of Management.  This article appeared on Nov. 30.

KNX-AM 1070 (CBS) Los Angeles
Business Hour
Jerry Nickelsburg, economist with the UCLA Anderson Forecast, discussed his recent report suggesting the economic impact of the writer's strike may be much less than originally thought -- on this local news program.  This segment aired on Nov. 28 and Nov. 29.

Daily Variety
Billion Dollar Bust?
As the writer's strike entered its 24th day, Jerry Nickelsburg, an economist with the UCLA Anderson Forecast, issued a report challenging current economic impact estimates.  "The impact, even if the strike runs as long as the record 1988 strike, will be about one-third or less of the current accepted $1 billion estimate," says Nickelsburg.  This article appeared on Nov. 29.

The Hollywood Reporter
Study Eases Strike Cost
Saying that the region is less vulnerable to fallout from an entertainment strike now than in the last WGA walkout, UCLA Anderson Forecast economist Jerry Nickelsburg says an oft-quoted projection of the regional economic threat from a long writers strike is greatly exaggerated.  "The entertainment industry and in particular television entertainment is quite different than it was in 1988," says Nickelsburg.  "One cannot simply take lost wages from the 1988 strike and extrapolate them to today."  This article appeared on Nov. 29.

CNBC News
Jerry Nickelsburg, economist with the UCLA Anderson Forecast, estimates the writers strike could cost the local economy $380 million if it lasts as long as the 22-week walkout by writers in 1988.  This segment aired on Nov. 29.

Reuters
Hollywood Producers Make New Offer to Striking Writers
In an effort to end the strike, studios and television networks offered writers additional compensation, but there was no immediate response from the Writers Guild.  A new report issued by the UCLA Anderson Forecast, authored by economist Jerry Nickelsburg says the economic impact of a long strike will be less than originally projected due primarily to the changing television landscape.  This article appeared on Nov. 29.  The UCLA Anderson Forecast/Nickelsburg authored report was mentioned on Nov. 29 in stories about the strike in the Daily Breeze and the Long Beach Press-Telegram, and online on the following sites: MSNBC.com, China.org, People's Daily News (China), fox11.com, CBS2Chicago.com, CBS2Denver.com, and CBS4Boston.com. 

Los Angeles Times
Many Shows Could Take Weeks to Roll After the Walkout Ends
Even though it could take weeks to restart production once the writer's strike ends, if an agreement is reached soon, the regional economic impact won't be very significant.  "If the strike ends by year's end, the overall impact on the L.A. economy is going to be minimal," says Jerry Nickelsburg, an economist with the UCLA Anderson Forecast, and author of a recent report detailing the economic impact of a writers strike.  This article appeared on Nov. 28.

National Public Radio
To the Point -- "A Recession on the Horizon?"
David Shulman, senior economist with the UCLA Anderson Forecast, joined a panel of experts to discuss whether a recession is starting to look inevitable for the near future -- on this national current affairs talk show.  This segment aired on Nov. 28.

Voice of San Diego
‘What Subprime Has Giveth, Subprime Has Taketh Away'
As housing prices continue to drop, many experts are wondering if the housing market troubles are enough to propel the local or national economies into a recession.  "We're still holding the line that we'll see a sluggish economy for a while both at the national and state levels," says Ryan Ratcliff, an economist with the UCLA Anderson Forecast.  But Ratciff is not predicting a recession.  This article appeared on Nov. 28.

Los Angeles Times
Homeowners' Big Question
Regardless of Southern California's falling housing prices, some real estate experts don't believe homes in affluent areas will suffer the same fate.  But according to Edward Leamer, director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast, this is just wishful thinking.  Since 1989, Leamer has tracked housing prices in the 20 least expensive and the 20 most expensive ZIP codes in Los Angeles County, and found that all areas fell by about the same percentage when they hit bottom in the 1990s downturn.  This article appeared on Nov. 27.

Los Angeles Times
Eating Out is Getting Lonelier
The slowing economy is negatively impacting the restaurant industry, as people are eating out less and being more selective about where they are dining.  "It's much more difficult to limit your use of gasoline than it is to limit your purchase of hamburgers and fries," says Jerry Nickelsburg, an economist with the UCLA Anderson Forecast.  "As gasoline prices and other costs go up, something has to give."  This article appeared on Nov. 24.

Los Angeles Times
UCLA Grads Score Big with SAT Preparation Company
When Jake Neuberg and Ramit Varna graduated from UCLA Anderson School of Management in 2002, they wanted to create the largest SAT preparation company in the country, and now that they have established Revolution Prep as the leading prep company in California, they may be well on their way.  "Getting parents to know all their options was our biggest obstacle," says Varna.  Both wanted to emphasize that Revolution Prep was more approachable than the big companies and that they cared for individual students.   This article appeared on Nov. 22.

KPCC-FM (NPR) Los Angeles
Patt Morrison Show
Ryan Ratcliff discussed the state's current economic picture, reiterating that he does not foresee a recession, on this local radio show.  This segment aired on Nov. 21.

The Indianapolis Star
School Reform Comes Down to Choice, Weighted Funding
A new concept in the discussion of education reform involves a new way to weight funding towards the needs of individual students.  According to William Ouchi, a professor at UCLA Anderson School of Management and a leading thinker on school reform, principals given the freedom to use their budgets to meet specific student needs hire less administrative staff and more teachers.  This article appeared on Nov. 20.

Los Angeles Business Journal
Budget Shortfall, Writer's Strike Linked by Uncertainty
Is there any parallel between the state's budget crisis and the labor-management impasse between Hollywood writers and studios?  In his editorial, Daniel J.B. Mitchell, a professor with UCLA Anderson School of Management, explains that uncertainty and lack of control lie at the root of both situations -- and suggests that both situations require a short-term fix and a longer-term shift toward risk sharing and contingency.  This editorial appeared on Nov. 19.

New York Post
Some Soar Points
Advice for job success from individuals who are top in their fields includes speaking up, offering solutions, name dropping, and expanding your job duties whether you're being paid to or not.  When it comes to building a solid network within your organization, Sanford Jacoby, a professor at UCLA Anderson School of Management, says "Networks are built on trust.  People have to trust you before they'll share information."  This article appeared on Nov. 19.

Los Angeles Times
Learning to Manage with a Disability
UCLA Anderson School of Management convened the first-ever management training program for executives with disabilities.  The five-day program, a part of the school's Executive Education Leadership Suite Series, brought together disabled supervisors from a number of companies to hone their leadership skills, plot career goals and build support networks.  According to Laurie Dowling, executive director of UCLA Anderson Executive Education Programs, role models and mentors are important for every manager.  "The people who've gone before us can often give us important advice about how to handle challenges ... "  This article appeared on Nov. 16.

KNX-AM 1070 (CBS) Los Angeles
Business Hour
Edward Leamer, director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast, discussed current economic conditions, the housing market, and how consumers are reacting to both on this local news program.  This segment aired on Nov. 16.

AACSB International eNEWSLINE
Can Our Students Afford to Learn?
Judy Olian, dean of UCLA Anderson School of Management, believes that management education serves an important societal purpose and should be broadly available -- both in access and affordability.  As the chair of AACSB International, Olian writes in this month's eNEWSLINE that it will be up to business schools to address appropriate business and delivery models as means of stemming rising tuition costs, and ignite supporters in sharing the goal of accessible management education as a social good.  This editorial appeared on Nov. 15.

The San Diego Union-Tribune
Prices Fall in All Corners of Southern California
Home prices fell last month in all six major Southern California counties for the first time in 12 years, but San Diego County, one of the first markets to see a housing downturn, may be the first to recover.  "Oddly enough, I think San Diego is one of the first markets to go south, but I think San Diego is further along in the painful adjustment than others in Southern California," says Ryan Ratcliff, an economist with the UCLA Anderson Forecast.  This article appeared on Nov. 15.

Daily Bruin
Helping the Disabled Achieve Professional Equality
UCLA Anderson School of Management launched its one-of-a-kind executive training program Leadership Institute for Managers with Disabilities -- a weeklong program aimed at equipping disabled leaders with the necessary skills and contacts they need to excel in the workforce.  "What you get out of this is priceless," says program participant and speaker Patty O'Sullivan, representing Agilent Technologies, Inc.  According to Laurie Dowling, faculty co-director of the Institute, program participants will learn to think, lead, and manage in ways that celebrate their individual attributes and perspectives, while also boosting their position within their organization.  This article appeared on Nov. 15.

Associated Press
California's Deficit Balloons to $10 Billion Amid Slowing Economy
Four years after a fiscal crisis pushed former Gov. Davis from office, California faces a projected $10 billion shortfall and many are blaming Gov. Schwarzenegger for letting spending balloon by 40 percent since he took office.  "We never really fixed the problem," says Ryan Ratcliff, an economist with the UCLA Anderson Forecast.  "There were a lot of smoke and mirrors to make it look good but no fixes."  This article appeared on Nov. 14 and was reprinted in the Fresno Bee and the Riverside Press Enterprise.

NBC - National
Today
Edward Leamer, director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast, discussed the nation's weak economy and how the Fed and consumers may respond -- on this national news program.  This segment aired on Nov. 12.

Los Angeles Times
Gore's Latest Green Venture
As a partner with Kleiner, Perkins, Caufield & Byers, a prominent Silicon Valley venture firm, Al Gore will be able to guide millions of investment dollars into green tech companies.  Charles Corbett, a professor at UCLA Anderson School of Management, who studies the link between good business practices and environmental protection, said Gore as a venture capitalist made sense.  "VCs are interested in bringing expertise and name recognition on board, while Al Gore is undoubtedly interested in being part of the process of identifying and enabling promising technologies."  This article appeared on Nov. 13.

Los Angeles Business Journal
L.A. County's Median Home Price Finally Falls
With the housing bust hitting different parts of the country at different times and with varying levels of severity, the biggest question locally is: How far does Los Angeles County have to go before it bottoms out?  Ryan Ratcliff, an economist with the UCLA Anderson Forecast, doesn't think L.A. will see the same sort of declines other parts of the state have seen.  "What I expect to see in L.A. home prices for at least the next two years is sideways movement, a month up and a month down."  This article appeared on Nov. 12.

BusinessWeek
The Best Spare-Time B-Schools
Rated the top part-time MBA program in the nation, BusinessWeek magazine cites the UCLA Anderson School of Management program as one that challenges students to apply everything they have learned in a final project that takes them well outside their comfort zones.  Anderson's three-year Fully Employed MBA Program requires attendees to complete two courses a quarter, for a total of 10 core classes, and eight electives on top of a six-month-long project.  "We have exactly the same expectations whether you're in the full-time or part-time program," says the school's dean, Judy Olian.  "We make no excuses."  This article appeared on Nov. 12.

San Francisco Chronicle
Some S.F. Neighborhoods Are Solid Despite Meltdown
Despite the statewide mortgage meltdown and plunging home sales, the San Francisco real estate market remains healthy, primarily due to the relative lack of inventory -- meaning demand still exceeds supply.  According to Ryan Ratcliff, an economist with the UCLA Anderson Forecast, in areas like San Francisco where there's mostly existing housing, homeowners set prices based on their desires and aren't in a hurry to sell, which keeps prices high.  "We've noticed that the hardest hit areas are those like Sacramento, where there's been an abundance of new construction."  This article appeared on Nov. 11.

The Malaysia Star
Jobs Can't Make You Happy, But You Can Find Meaning in Your Work
Many people grow up with the idea that they will have a satisfying career, but the reality for many is that work is often unfulfilling.  Samuel Culbert, a professor at UCLA Anderson School of Management, believes people must find meaning in a job to find satisfaction -- and often they have to create that meaning for themselves.  "A job needs to give a person a sense of purpose that he or she is not just a cog in the machinery."  This article appeared on Nov. 10.

Gold Coast Bulletin (Australia)
Academic's Hunt for Aussie Talent
Meeting with Australian government officials and business owners, Dr. Elwin Svenson, director of UCLA Anderson's Global Access Program (GAP), is hoping to secure candidates to participate in the school's field study program.  GAP, offered to Anderson's fully-employed MBA students, matches students with existing technology companies worldwide and provides them with a real world opportunity to assist companies through stages of growth.  "They deal with real life people and real life problems," says Svenson.    This article appeared on Nov. 9.

MarketWatch
Could California Be in Recession?
Some experts contend that California is on the edge of a recession, but economists at the UCLA Anderson Forecast disagree.  "California is in for at least another year of economic doldrums," says Ryan Ratcliff, and economist with the Forecast.  But Ratcliff says the state will not sink into a recession unless a second source of weakness develops, or the housing market worsens more than expected.  This article appeared on Nov. 9.

Los Angeles Times
Governor Teeters On Edge of Deficit Abyss
Experts agree that the state's spending habits are no more restrained than they were when Gov. Schwarzenegger arrived in Sacramento four years ago, and now the governor finds himself staring at a crippling budget shortfall that threatens to overshadow all other business in the Capitol.  According to Ryan Ratcliff, an economist with the UCLA Anderson Forecast, none of the state's underlying problems have been properly dealt with.  And Daniel J.B. Mitchell, a professor at UCLA Anderson School of Management, says "if you put yourself in a vulnerable situation, you have to expect your luck is going to run out."  This article appeared on Nov. 7.

Los Angeles Business Journal
It's Not a Recession, It's a ‘Near Recession Experience'
In his opinion piece Jerry Nickelsburg, an economist with the UCLA Anderson Forecast, argues that the U.S. economy is having a near recession experience -- not yet in one and probably not going to enter one.  "We are in for a rocky couple of years as we plow through the excess supply of high priced housing and lower availability of financing, but in general, slow economic growth with a bit of a buffer against worse time is our new reality."  This opinion piece appeared on Nov. 5.

The Bakersfield Californian
Lean Times Here?
In September, Bakersfield's home sales were nearly half what they were a year ago, and with slowing job growth and declining car sales, many in the region are wondering if a recession will hit the region.  According to Jerry Nickelsburg, an economist with the UCLA Anderson Forecast, real estate and construction are typically the most volatile portions of regional economies.  "Bakersfield is very much exposed to the economic vicissitudes of the country at large."  This article appeared on Nov. 3.

Daily Bruin
Business School Gets New Assistant
Drawn to UCLA Anderson School of Management because of the school's unique programs, Kelly Bean brings her business expertise to the school as the new assistant dean for executive education.  "I'm very impressed with the quality of work, particularly in the diversity area and the leadership area as well," says Bean, a former executive director of executive education at Emory University's business school.  The Anderson School's executive education programs are aimed at top-level professionals who want to improve their leadership and management skills - serving nearly 2,000 people each year.  This article appeared on Nov. 2.

National Public Radio
Marketplace
UCLA Anderson Forecast economist Jerry Nickelsburg discussed the economic impact of the writer's strike as a guest on this national business news program.  This segment aired on Nov. 1.

Media Relations