June 2007

Wall Street Journal
Journal Reporters Win Gerald Loeb Awards
Two teams of reporters at the Wall Street Journal won 2007 Gerald Loeb awards - one in the large newspaper category for coverage of stock-option abuses and one in the deadline writing category for coverage of the multibillion-dollar collapse of a hedge fund.  In addition, Dan Kelly, a page-one news editor at the Journal won the Lawrence Minard Editor Award, which honors the behind-the-scenes career of a business-news editor.  The Loeb Awards, held on June 25, 2007 in New York, are administered by UCLA Anderson School of Management.  This article appeared on June 28.

KCRW - 89.9 FM Los Angeles (National Public Radio)
Morning Edition - News
Daniel Mitchell, professor with UCLA Anderson School of Management commented on the current California state budget crisis and how state employees might be affected if a new budget isn’t passed by the deadline.  This segment aired on June 28.

American Banker
Pipeline Pacific Paradox
Even though the foreclosure rates are rising, California home prices are still going up, and its economy remains strong, quashing any suggestion of recession.  But, according to Ryan Ratcliff, an economist at UCLA Anderson Forecast, "if the carnage in the subprime markets turns out worse than we expect, job losses in Southern California could make things a bit worse."   This article appeared on June 28.

Washington Post
Inflation Target May Be Shifting
Concerned about rising food and fuel costs, the U.S. Federal Reserve plans to review how they define inflation, perhaps paying closer attention to overall inflation as opposed to just focusing on core inflation as they have in the past.  According to David Shulman, a senior economist with the UCLA Anderson Forecast, if the Fed makes this shift, "it would unnerve more than a few market participants."  This article appeared on June 27 and was reprinted by United Press International.

Miami Herald
Miami Herald Series Honored
Miami Herald reporter Ronnie Greene was recognized as a finalist in the medium newspaper category at the Gerald Loeb Awards for a series exposing safety breakdowns in the U.S. air cargo industry.  The Loeb Awards, the highest honor in business journalism, were presented by UCLA Anderson School of Management.  This article appeared on June 27.

Fort Worth Star-Telegram
Star-Telegram Reporter Receives the Loeb Award
Star-Telegram reporter Heather Landy won the Gerald Loeb Award for beat writing for a series revealing the shady practices of Radio Shack's former CEO.  The winning reporter was also a finalist in the contest's medium newspaper category.  The Loeb Awards, administrated by UCLA Anderson School of Management, celebrated its 50th anniversary this year.  This article appeared on June 27.

Los Angeles Daily News
An Impatient Plea for Pills
Some health experts think Americans have become too dependent on pills - wanting instant cures for everything from weight-loss, to high cholesterol, insomnia and depression.  "Americans have a very can-do attitude, and we’re not very patient," says Carol Scott, professor of marketing at UCLA Anderson School of Management.   This article appeared on June 24.

Los Angeles Business Journal
Property Values
A month into his post as professor of finance and director of the Richard S. Ziman Center for Real Estate at UCLA Anderson School of Management, Stuart Gabriel discusses his accomplished career, sheds light on the local real estate market, and predicts the urbanization of L.A. in this Journal Q&A.  "Urban L.A. is being born ... L.A. a decade from now will look like an older East Coast city or a European city in terms of a very densely populated vertical core."  This article appeared on June 25.

The Press-Enterprise
Expert Says Both Sides Know Pain of Grocery Strike
Having learned valuable lessons from the last strike, California grocers and grocery workers want to do whatever they can to avoid a prolonged labor dispute this time around.  "The stores learned that the union could hold out longer than they expected," says Daniel Mitchell, professor, UCLA Anderson School of Management.  "The unions learned that they weren't very well-coordinated among the locals."  This article appeared on June 23.

SNL Financial
Share Repurchases Ride High as M&A Activity Swings Low
A recent surge in share repurchase activity and a corresponding slowdown in merger activity may illustrate a linkage between the two tied to stock valuations and market expectations.  "The common element is that they both take place in very strong markets that encourage, in particular, stock-for-stock mergers," says J. Fred Weston, finance professor emeritus at UCLA Anderson School of Management.  This article appeared on June 22.

UCLA Anderson Forecast - June 19, 2007
"Economic and Real Estate Forecast"
In its June report, UCLA Anderson Forecast economists examine the current residential and commercial real estate markets and continue to predict that a recession is not imminent.  Articles about the forecast and/or real estate report appeared in the following publications:  Associated Press, Reuters, Bloomberg, People’s Daily (China), Salon, Los Angeles Times, Oakland Tribune, Contra Costa Times, Los Angeles Business Journal, Sacramento Business Journal, San Francisco Chronicle, San Francisco Examiner,  Alameda Times-Star, The Sacramento Bee, The San Jose Mercury News, The Budapest Business Journal, The Daily Breeze, Investor’s Business Daily, North County Times, San Diego Union Tribune, San Diego Daily Transcript, The Hartford Courant, La Opinion, Hoy, Seattle Post-Intelligencer, The Press-Enterprise, Daily Bruin, The Whittier Daily News, and the East Bay Business Times and received radio and television coverage on the following stations: Bloomberg TV "On the Economy," CNBC-TV Closing Bell, KCBS-TV (CBS) L.A., KNBC-TV (NBC) L.A., KABC-TV (ABC) L.A., KTTV-TV (FOX) L.A., KTLA-TV (CW) L.A., KGO-TV (ABC) S.F., KRON-TV (IND) S.F., KTVU-TV (NBC) S.F., KPIX-TV (CBS) S.F., KRIS-TV (NBC) Corpus Christi, KGET-TV (NBC) Bakersfield, KQED-FM (NPR) S.F., KCRW-FM L.A., KFWB-AM L.A., KNX-AM L.A., KROQ-FM L.A., KGO-AM S.F., KOVCR-AM Sacramento. 

Los Angeles Business Journal
Check the Rear-View Mirror
In his piece about California’s transportation system, UCLA Anderson professor Daniel Mitchell advises we recognize the value of decisions made 60 years ago (e.g. gas tax) by then Governor Earl Warren when thinking about future transportation goals.  This opinion piece appeared on June 18.

Los Angeles Times
Housing Woes Hit Jobs in State
Even though the slump in California's real estate market now appears to be taking its toll on jobs, this doesn't necessarily spell recession.  "Our rule of thumb is you need two separate sources of weakness," says Ryan Ratcliff, economist with the UCLA Anderson Forecast.  "So, if you have only one, the scenario looks much more like a near-miss than a full-blown recession."  This article appeared on June 16.

San Diego Union-Tribune
Sales Down 24% From 2006
Demand for high-end homes in San Diego County is causing home prices to rise, even as total home sales fall.  Although he does not think the local market has hit bottom yet, Ryan Ratcliff, economist with the UCLA Anderson Forecast, says "people who have expendable income - if they want something, they buy it."  This article appeared on June 14.

San Diego Union-Tribune
Housing Slump Into '08 Likely, Study Finds
In their recent annual report, Harvard University researchers state that the crisis in the subprime mortgage market is likely to prolong the national housing slump, as more loans move into default.  According to Edward Leamer, director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast, investors have lost their appetite for securities backed by subprime mortgages and that means the subprime market "isn’t going to come back anytime soon."  This article appeared on June 12.

Los Angeles Business Journal
In a Disaster, Blindly Following Procedures Won’t Be Sufficient
Writing about a recent travel experience, Professor Shlomo Benartzi suggests that the disturbing American trend toward "dumbing down" of employee performance may ultimately put our individual and collective safety at risk.  This opinion piece appeared on June 11.

CNBC - National
"Fast Money"
Allison Hogan, UCLA Anderson MBA 2008, appeared on the Fast Money segment "Face 2 Face" in which guest viewers from across the country present questions to the show's trader hosts for their response.   Allison's timely question focused on the long-term value of Bear Stearns stock.  This show aired on June 7.

Los Angeles Times
Hopes Ebbing For Cuts in Interest Rates
With the U.S. economy remaining strong, it appears unlikely that the Fed will cut interest rates this year, making recovery in the housing market difficult.  But according to Edward Leamer, director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast, "housing is going to be dead for another year or so, regardless of what happens with rates."  This article appeared on June 6.

Los Angeles Business Journal
Good Things Can Come From Good Packaging
Consumers may be swayed by how a product is packaged, but when it comes to business-to-business sales, packaging isn't a make-or-break issue.  "In 'B2B' you expect the decision-maker is thinking more carefully about product performance than anything like lower prices or packaging," says Sanjay Sood, associate professor of marketing at UCLA Anderson School of Management.  This article appeared on June 4.

North County Times
Home Sales May Be Nearing Bottom
Even though homes sales in San Diego County have dropped considerably, home prices have cooled only slightly.  This is to be expected according to Edward Leamer, director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast, who says that typically "sales fall first, while prices decline later and drift down slowly."  This article appeared on June 3 and was reprinted on MSNBC.com

Kiplinger’s Personal Finance
Recession Talk is All Wet
The subprime mortgage mess may cause some economic pain, but experts don’t think it will tip the U.S. economy into recession.  "If you are a broker or a builder, it will feel like a depression," says Edward Leamer, director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast.  This article appeared on June 1.

Asian Wall Street Journal
Westerners Commute to Asia to Get MBAs
Viewing the region as crucial to their careers, a growing number of MBA students are heading to Asia for part of their studies.  "These students want the Asia experience, even if they aren’t working there now," says Judy Olian, dean of UCLA Anderson School of Management.  A UCLA Anderson School program based in Singapore (UCLA-NUS) currently counts 48% of its students as U.S. residents. This article appeared on June 1.

San Francisco Business Times
Race to Hire is On
Despite a recent economic boost in the Bay Area's tech industry, some experts fear a coming economic slowdown will make continuing job growth more difficult, even if the nation avoids a recession.  "We still expect to see the pattern of deepening real estate (job) losses combined with a slowdown in the rest of the economy," says Ryan Ratcliff, economist with the UCLA Anderson Forecast.  This article appeared on June 1.