February 14, 2005

UCLA Anderson Forecast Honored for its Accuracy

More Pessimistic — and More on Target than Most Economic Outlooks


Professor Edward LeamerLOS ANGELES – The UCLA Anderson Forecast, directed by Prof. Edward Leamer, Chauncey J. Medberry Chair in Management at UCLA Anderson School of Management, was recently honored for the accuracy of its national economic forecast by the Bank One Economic Outlook Center at Arizona State University’s W. P. Carey School of Business.

“The Bank One Economic Outlook Center wishes to commend our four most accurate forecasters for (2003): Robert Eggert, Yasuo Nishiyama, Edward Leamer’s team at the UCLA Anderson Forecast, and William Dewald,” said Dawn McLaren, research economist with the center.

Over the 12 months preceding November 2004, the more pessimistic forecasts of the nation’s employment growth proved to be the most accurate, according to the Blue Chip Job Growth Update, a monthly publication of the Bank One Economic Outlook Center.  The nationwide economic panel’s forecasts are summarized quarterly in the National Consensus Forecast of Labor Employment, Compensation and Productivity.

The Bank One Economic Outlook Center noted that when it comes to the level of nonagricultural employment, the most pessimistic forecasts were the most accurate.  The team of forecasters at the UCLA Anderson Forecast, along with Penn State University economist, came closest to the final figure, and although they were the most pessimistic, the final figure still managed to fall below their expectations.

“Our role as forecasters is not simply to tell our subscribers and the public in general what they want to hear, but rather to help them be prepared for what might be on the horizon regarding the economy,” said Prof. Leamer.  “We’re pleased to receive recognition for the accuracy of our forecasts because it means we have well served our constituents.”

“We are always proud of the work done at the UCLA Anderson Forecast,” said Bruce G. Willison, dean of UCLA Anderson School of Management.  “They have been leaders in economic and business forecasting for more than half a century, and Prof. Leamer and his team are continuing a long tradition of serving the public with the high quality and independence of their forecasts.”

The UCLA Anderson Forecast, one of the most widely watched and often-cited economic outlooks for California and the nation, is no stranger to accurate forecasts.  The forecasting team is credited as the first major U.S. economic forecasting group to declare the recession of 2001.  The team was also unique in predicting both the seriousness of the early-1990s downturn in California, and the strength of the state’s rebound since 1993.

Founded in 1952, the UCLA Anderson Forecast is one of the most widely watched and often-cited economic outlooks for California and the nation.  Award-winning for its accuracy, the UCLA Anderson Forecast often breaks with consensus in its quarterly forecast reports, which feature projections for major economic indicators, including inflation, interest rates, job growth and gross domestic product growth.

About UCLA Anderson School of Management
UCLA Anderson School of Management is perennially ranked among the top-tier business schools in the world.  Award-winning faculty renowned for their research and teaching, highly selective admissions, successful alumni and world-class facilities combine to provide an extraordinary learning environment.  UCLA Anderson students are part of a culture that values individual vision, intellectual discipline and a sense of teamwork and collegiality.

Established in 1935, UCLA Anderson School of Management provides management education to more than 1,400 students enrolled in MBA and doctoral programs, and some 2,000 executives and managers enrolled annually in executive education programs.  Recognizing that the school offers unparalleled expertise in management education, the world's business community turns to UCLA Anderson School of Management as a center of influence for the ideas, innovations, strategies and talent that will shape the future.

Contact Information

philip.little@anderson.ucla.edu

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