Recent Academic and Policy Papers

You can download previous papers from the NBER website

 
2007

Crises and Growth: A Latin America Perspective, Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History, Forthcoming.

On Current Account Surpluses and the Correction of Global Imbalances, Tenth Annual Conference of the Central Bank of Chile: Current Account and External Financing.

Capital Controls, Capital Flow Contractions, and Macroeconomic Vulnerability, Journal of International Money and Finance, Forthcoming.

 

2006

External Imbalances in an Advanced, Commodity-Exporting Country: The Case of New Zealand, Bulletin, 69(4), Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

Monetary Unions, External Shocks and Economic Performance: A Latin American Perspective, International Economics and Economic Policy, 3:225-247.

The Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Inflation Targeting Revisited, Ninth Annual Conference of the Central Bank of Chile: Monetary Policy Under Inflation Targetting.

The U.S. Current Account Deficit: Gradual Correction or Abrupt Adjustment?, Journal of Policy Modelling, 28: 629-643.

Strict Dollarization and Economic Performance: An Empirical Investigation, Journal of Money Credit and Banking, February 2006, 38(1): 269-282, with I. Igal Magendzo.

 

2005

Flexible Exchange Rates as Shock Absorbers, European Economic Review, November 2005, 49(8): 2079-2105, with Eduardo Levy Yeyati.

The End of Large Current Account Deficits, 1970-2002: Are There Lessons for the United States?, NBER Working Papers: 11669, published in The Greenspan Era: Lessons for the Future, The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City; 205-268.

Is the U.S. Current Account Deficit Sustainable? And If Not, How Costly is Adjustment Likely to Be? NBER Working Papers: 11541, published in Brookings Papers on Economic-Activity, 2005, 0(1): 211-71

Capital Controls, Exchange Rate Volatility and External Vulnerability NBER Working Papers: 11434, with Roberto Rigobon

Establishing Credibility: The Role of Foreign Advisors, NBER Working Papers: 11429, in Growth, Institutions and Crises, Sebastian Edwards (Editor), University of Chicago Press, Forthcoming, 2007

Capital Controls, Sudden Stops and Current Account Reversals NBER Working Papers: 11170, in International Capital Flows, Sebastian Edwards (Editor), University of Chicago Press, Forthcoming 2007.

 

2004

Labor Reform and Employment in Latin America, Comparative, Labor Law and Policy Journal. Winter 2004, 25(2): 349-363.

The Economics of Latin American Art: Creativity Patterns and Rates of Return, NBER Working Papers: 10302, published in Economia: Journal of the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association. Spring 2004; 4(2): 1-35

Financial Openness, Sudden Stops and Current Account Reversals, NBER Working Papers: 10277, published in American Economic Review. May 2004; 94(2): 59-64

Thirty Years of Current Account Imbalances, Current Account Reversals and Sudden Stops, NBER Working Papers: 10276 2004, published in IMF Staff Papers. Special Issue 2004; 51(0): 1-49

 

2003

Flexible Exchange Rates as Shock Absorbers, NBER Working Papers: 9867, with Eduardo Levy Yeyati

Financial Instability in Latin America, Journal of International Money and Finance, December 2003; 22(7): 1095-1106

Stock Market Cycles, Financial Liberalization and Volatility, NBER Working Papers: 9817, published in Journal of International Money and Finance, December 2003, 22(7): 925-55, with Javier Gomez Biscarri and Fernando Perez de Gracia

Strict Dollarization and Economic Performance: An Empirical Investigation, NBER Working Papers: 9820, with I. Igal Magendzo

A Currency of One's Own?  An Empirical Analysis of Dollarization and Currency Unions, NBER Working Papers: 9514, with I. Igal Magendzo

Latin American and U.S. Universities: A Forty Years Analysis, Cuadernos de Economia, December 2003; 40(121): 399-412

Dollarization and Economic Performance: What Do We Really Know?, International Journal of Finance and Economics, October 2003; 8(4): 351-63, with I. Igal Magendzo.

Debt Relief and the Current Account: An Analysis of the HIPC Initiative, World Economy, April 2003; 26(4): 513-31

Debt Relief and Fiscal Sustainability, Review of World Economics / Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv. 2003; 139(1): 38-65

Interest-Rate Volatility in Emerging Markets, Review of Economics and Statistics. May 2003; 85(2): 328-48, with Raul Susmel

Exchange Rate Regimes, Capital Flows and Crisis Prevention in Feldstein, Martin (Ed.): Economic and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies, NBER Conference Report series. Chicago and London: University of Chicago Press, 2003; 31-78.

Dollarization:  Myths and Realities, in Salvatore, Dominick; Dean, James W. and Thomas D. Willett (Eds.): The Dollarization Debate. Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press, 2003; 111-28

 

2002

Does the Current Account Matter? In Edwards, Sebastian and Jeffrey A. Frankel (Eds.): Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets. NBER Conference Report Series. Chicago and London: University of Chicago Press, 2002; 21-69.

Review of Stiglitz "Globalization and its Discontent", Journal of Development Economics, February 2003, 70 (1): 252-257.

Social Security Reform and Labor Markets  Economic Development and Cultural Change, April 2000, 50 (3): 465–489, with Alejandra Cox Edwards .

The Great Exchange Rate Debate After Argentina The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, December 2002, 13(3) 237-252.

Debt Relief and Fiscal Sustainability  NBER Working Papers: 8939.

Twenty Five Years of Stabilization Programs in Latin America, presented at the Conference Celebrating Banco de Mexico's Anniversary, Mexico City, November 14-15, 2000.

The Argentine Debt Crisis of 2001-2002:  A Chronology and Some Key Policy Issues, presented at NBER Conference on Argentina, July 2002, Cambridge, MA.

 

2001

Dollarization, Inflation and Growth, NBER Working Papers: 8671, with I. Igal Magendzo.  

Dollarization:  Myths and Realities, Journal of Policy-Modeling. April 2001; 23(3): 249-65. Also in Salvatore, Dominick; Dean, James W. and Thomas D. Willett (Eds.): The Dollarization Debate. Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press, 2003; 111-28

Exchange Rate Regimes, Capital Flows and Crisis Prevention NBER Working Papers: 8529, published in Feldstein, Martin (Ed.): Economic and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies, NBER Conference Report series. Chicago and London: University of Chicago Press, 2003; 31-78.

Does the Current Account Matter? NBER Working Papers: 8275

Information Technology and Economic Growth in the Emerging Economies , May, 2001(Presented at a BBVA-CEPAL Conference, published Challenge Magazine).  

Volatility Dependence, and Contagion in Emerging Equity Markets, NBER Working Papers: 8506, Published in Journal of Development Economics, December 2001; 66(2): 505-32  

 

2000

On the Crisis Hypothesis of Economic Reform, Cuadernos de Economia (Pontifical-Catholic-University-of-Chile). December 2000; 37(112): 445-93

Capital Mobility and Economic Performance:  Are Emerging Countries Different?  NBER Working Papers: 8076, Also in Siebert, Horst (Ed.): The World's New Financial Landscape: Challenges for Economic Policy. Kiel Institute of World Economics Symposia and Conference Proceedings. Heidelberg and New York: Springer, 2001; 219-44

Contagion, World Economy. July 2000; 23(7): 873-900, Presented at the University of Nottingham as the 1999 WORLD ECONOMY LECTURE

Exchange Rate Systems in Emerging Economies,  April, 2000 (Prepared for the Meltzer Commission on the New Financial Architecture)

Interest Rate Volatility and Contagion in Emerging Markets, NBER Working Papers: 7813, Presented at the NBER-IASE Conference in Buenos Aires and at the AEA Meetings in Boston)

Controls on Capital Inflows:  Do they Work?, NBER Working Papers: 7645, published in Journal of Development Economics, October 2000; 63(1): 59-83, with Jose De Gregorio and Rodrigo O. Valdes

Economic Reforms and Labor Markets:  Policy Issues and Lessons from Chile, NBER Working Papers: 7646, published in Economic Policy, April 2000, 30: 181-203.

 

1999

How Effective are Capital Controls?  September 1999 (A slightly revised version of this paper was published in the Journal of Economic Perspectives, Fall 1999).

Latin America at the End of the Century:  More of the Same? September 1999  (Presented at seminars in Chile and Peru).

Social Security Reform and Labor Markets: The Case of Chile, August 1999.

How effective are Controls on Capital Inflows? An Evaluation of Chile's Experience, June 1999.

On Crisis Prevention: Lessons from Mexico and East Asia, June 1999. (Presented at the Brookings-World Bank Conference on "Financial Markets and Development: Preventing Crises in Emerging Markets, March 1999).

Remarks on Dollarization, April 1999. (Remarks made at Deutsche Bank's Seminar on Latin America, Paris. March,1999. In Deutsche Bank, Global Emerging Markets, Vol.2, 2).

The Mirage of Capital Controls, May 1999. (This is an earlier version of a paper published in Foreign Affairs, May/June 1999).

Exchange Rates in Emerging Economies: What do We Know? What do We Need to Know? (Joint with Miguel Savastano, IMF), May, 1999 (Published in volume edited by Anne Krueger).

 

1998

Capital Flows, Real Exchange Rates, and Capital Controls: Some Latin American Experiences, Nov, 1998 (Published in S.Edwards ed. Capital Flows to Emerging Markets, U. of Chicago Press).

Interest Rate Volatility, Capital Controls, and Contagion, Oct, 1998 (Earlier version of paper published in Journal of Applied Economics, 1998).

The Morning After: The Mexican Peso in the Aftermath of the 1994 Currency Crisis, (Joint with Miguel A. Savastano, IMF), Apr, 1998 (Presented at Paul Krugman's NBER Conference on Currency Crises).

The Political Economy of Unilateral Trade Liberalization: The Case of Chile (Joint with Daniel Lederman), Apr, 1998 (Published in volume edited by Jagdish Bhagwati).

Capital Inflows into Latin America: A Stop-Go Story?, Mar, 1998 (Revised version published by University of Chicago press in volume edited by Marty Feldstein).

 

1997

The Mexican Peso Crisis? How Much Did We Know? When Did We Know It?, Dec, 1997 (A revised version was published in The World Economy, 1998).

Banks and Macroeconomics Disturbances under Predetermined Exchange Rates, (Joint with Carlos A. Vegh, UCLA), Mar, 1997 (A revised version was published in the Journal of Monetary Economics, 1997).

Openness, Productivity and Growth: What Do We Really Know?, Mar, 1997 (A revised version was published in The Economic Journal, March 1998).

 

1996

The Chilean Pension Reform: A Pioneering Program, Nov, 1996 (A revised version was published in M. Feldstein (Ed) Privatizing Social Security, U. of Chicago press, 1998).

A Tale of Two Crises: Chile and Mexico, Oct, 1996 (A revised and expanded version was published in The Economic Journal, May 1998).

The Determinants of the Choice between Fixed and Flexible Exchange-Rate Regimes, Sep, 1996 (A revised and shorter version was published in NBER volume edited by Taka Ito and Anne Krueger, 1999).

Public Sector Deficits and Macroeconomic Stability in Developing Countries, Jan, 1996 (A revised and expanded version was published in the 1995 Proceedings from the Kansas City Fed Jackson Hole Conference).