Stuart A. Gabriel

Arden Realty Chair, Professor of Finance and Director, Richard S. Ziman Center for Real Estate at UCLA

Phone: (310) 825-2922

stuart.gabriel@anderson.ucla.edu

Biography

Stuart A. Gabriel is Director of the Ziman Center for Real Estate at UCLA and is Arden Realty Chair and Professor of Finance at UCLA Anderson School of Management. His research focuses on topics of real estate finance and economics, housing and mortgage markets, urban and regional economics, and macroeconomics.  He previously served on the economics staff of the Federal Reserve Board in Washington, D.C. and as a Visiting Scholar at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.  Professor Gabriel has published 75 articles in economics and finance journals and serves on the editorial boards of seven academic journals. His recent research has focused on issues of housing and the financial crisis, including assessment of integration and contagion in US housing markets, Google search behavior as an indicator of housing distress, GSE crowd out in secondary mortgage markets, and the effects of CDO market implosion on mortgage pricing.  Professor Gabriel is the recipient of a number of awards for research and teaching excellence. He has testified before the U.S. Congress and the California State Legislature and has provided policy advice to elected officials at the local, state, and federal levels. Dr. Gabriel is a past President of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association and a Fellow of the Homer Hoyt Institute for Advanced Real Estate Studies. Professor Gabriel serves on the Boards of Directors of KBS REITs and is a consultant to numerous corporate and governmental entities.  He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.

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Education

Ph.D. Economics, 1981, UC Berkeley
M.A. 1980, UC Berkeley
A.B. 1976, UC Berkeley

Interests

Real Estate Finance and Economics, Urban and Regional Economics, Housing and Mortgage Markets, Urban Public Finance, Macroeconomics
  • Yuval Arbel, Danny Ben Shahar and Stuart Gabriel. (Forthcoming). Anchoring and Housing Choice: Results of a Natural Policy Experiment. Regional Science and Urban Economics, [ Link ]
  • Stuart Gabriel and Stuart Rosenthal. (Forthcoming). The Boom, the Bust and the Future of Homeownership. Real Estate Economics,
  • Yongheng Deng, Stuart Gabriel, Kiyohiko Nishimura and Della Zhang. (2013). Optimal Pricing Strategy in the Case of Price Dispersion: New Evidence from the Tokyo Housing Market.. Real Estate Economics, 40 (5): 234-272. [ Link ]
  • Stuart Gabriel and Stuart Rosenthal. (2013). Urbanization, Agglomeration Economics, and Access to Mortgage Credit. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 43 (1): 42-50. [ Link ]
  • Stuart Gabriel and Frank Nothaft. (2012). James Berkovec Special Issue: An Introduction. Real Estate Economics, 40 (5): 1-7.
  • Stuart Gabriel and Gary Painter. (2012). "Household Location and Race: A Twenty-Year Retrospective". Journal of Regional Science, Volume 52 (5): 733 - 901.
  • Yuming Fu and Stuart Gabriel. (2012). Labor Migration, Human Capital Agglomeration, and Regional Development in China. Regional Science and Urban Economics, Volume 42: 473-484.
  • Xudong An, Yongheng Deng, and Stuart Gabriel. (2011). Asymmetric Information, Adverse Selection, and the Pricing of CMBS. Journal of Financial Economics, Volume 100(2): 304-325.
  • Yongheng Deng, Stuart Gabriel, and Anthony Sanders. (2011). CDO Market Implosion and the Pricing of Subprime Mortgage-Backed Securities. Journal of Housing Economics, Vol 20(2): 68-80.
  • Stuart A Gabriel and Stuart S Rosenthal. (2010). Do the GSEs Expand the Supply of Mortgage Credit? New Evidence on Crowd Out in the Secondary Mortgage Market. Journal of Public Economics, 94(11-12): 975-986.
  • Stuart Gabriel, Raphael Bostic and Gary Painter. (2009). Housing Wealth, Financial Wealth, and Consumption: New Evidence from Micro Data. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 39(1).
  • Stuart Gabriel, John Quigley, and Larry Rosenthal. (2009). The Mortgage Meltdown, the Economy, and Public Policy. The B.E. Journal of Economics Analysis and Policy,
  • Xudong An, Yongheng Deng and Stuart Gabriel. (2009). Value Creation through Securitization: Evidence from the CMBS Market. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 38 (3): 302-326. [ Link ]
  • Stuart Gabriel and with Gary Painter. (2009). Mobility, Residential Location, and the American Dream: The Intra-metropolitan Geography of Minority Homeownership. Real Estate Economics, 36 (3): 499-531. [ Link ]
  • Stuart Gabriel, Xudong An, Raphael Bostic, and Yongheng Deng. (2007). GSE Loan Purchases, the FHA, and Housing Outcomes in Targeted, Low-Income Neighborhoods. Brookings-Wharton Papers on Urban Affairs,
  • Stuart Gabriel and Yongheng Deng. (September 2006). Risk-Based Pricing and the Enhancement of Mortgage Credit Availability among Underserved and Higher Credit-Risk Populations. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol. 38, No. 6, pp.1431-1460.
  • Stuart Gabriel and Raphael Bostic. (February 2006). Do the GSEs Matter to Low-Income Housing Markets? An Assessment of the Effects of GSE Loan Purchases on California Housing Outcomes. Journal of Urban Economics, Vol. 59, pp. 458-475.
  • Stuart Gabriel and Stuart Rosenthal. (January 2005). Homeownership in the 1980s and 1990s: Aggregate Trends and Racial Disparities. Journal of Urban Economics, Vol. 57, no. 1, pp. 101-127.
  • Stuart Gabriel and Stuart Rosenthal. (February 2004). Quality of the Business Environment Versus Quality of Life in a Dynamic Model of Urban Composition and Growth. The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 86, No 1, pp.438-444.
  • Xudong An, Yongheng Deng, and Stuart A. Gabriel. (September 17, 2014). Pulling the Trigger: Default Option Exercise over the Business Cycle. [ Link ] [ Download ] [ Show Abstract ]
    We provide new evidence of cyclical variation in mortgage default option exercise. For a given level of negative equity, borrower propensity to default rose markedly during the financial crisis and in hard-�?hit metropolitan areas. Analysis of time-�?series and panel data indicates the importance of local economic risk, consumer sentiment, and federal policy innovations in explanation of borrower default behavior. Further, simulation shows that changes in behavior during the crisis period were more salient to the rise in defaults than were increases in negative equity. Findings provide new insights to shifts in borrower behavior relevant to originators, investors, insurers, and regulators of the $10 trillion U.S. mortgage market. From a risk modeling perspective, findings underscore the importance of model instability and provide guidance on mortgage underwriting, pricing, and contract design. Results also shed light on adverse unintended consequences of federal programs designed to mitigate mortgage failures.
  • Marcelle Chauvet, Stuart Gabriel and Chandler Lutz. (September 2012). Fear and Loathing in the Housing Market: Evidence from Search Query Data. [ Download ] [ Show Abstract ]
    We use Google search query data to develop a novel and direct index of investor distress in the housing market. This measure is highly correlated with negative housing sentiment. We find that our Housing Distress Index (HDI) is contempo- raneously related to and predicts national housing returns, the VIX index, foreclo- sures, and returns on ABX subprime mortgage credit default swaps. The Housing Distress Index also predicts housing returns among a cross-section of cities. Results further indicate that the relationship between the HDI and national housing returns is asymmetric and stronger during times of market crisis. Overall, the relationship between the HDI and housing returns resembles that between the VIX and stock returns.
  • John Cotter, Stuart Gabriel and Richard Roll. (July, 2012). Can Metropolitan Housing Risk be Diversified? A Cautiopnary Tale from the Recent Boom and Bust. [ Download ] [ Show Abstract ]
    Geographic diversification is fundamental to risk mitigation among investors and insurers of housing, mortgages, and mortgage-related derivatives. To characterize diversification potential, we provide estimates of integration, spatial correlation, and contagion among US metropolitan housing markets. Results reveal a high and increasing level of integration among US markets over the decade of the 2000s, especially in California. We apply integration results to assess the risk of alternative housing investment portfolios. Portfolio simulation indicates reduced diversification potential and increased risk in the wake of estimated increases in metropolitan housing market integration. Research findings provide new insights regarding the synchronous non-performance of geographically-disparate MBS investments during the late 2000s.