Edward E. Leamer

 

SELECTED RESEARCH

 

Deflation Dread Disorder "The CPI is Falling!"

TANTALUS ON THE ROAD TO ASYMPTOPIA

books

not yet classic book

some unsolicited advice

trade and wages

effort = total factor productivity

closeness as a source of comparative advantage

my other favorites

forecast reports

op-ed

 

 

BOOKS

Classic Books you cannot buy anymore

    A survey of empirical work in international economics


    Quantitative International Economics
    , with R.M. Stern, Boston: Allyn and Bacon, 1970.

    It isn’t easy to do econometrics with noisy data collected in ambiguous settings


    Specification Searches: Ad Hoc Inference with Non Experimental Data
    , (link in pdf file format) John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 1978. Translated into Spanish and Russian.

    The Heckscher-Ohlin Model is Much More Accurate Than Theorists Imagine


    Sources of International Comparative Advantage: Theory and Evidence,
    Boston: MIT Press, 1984.

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NOT YET CLASSIC BOOK

 

A Not-yet Classic Book that you can still purchase, if your budget constraint allows.

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SOME UNSOLICITED ADVICE

What should graduate students in international economics be reading?

How should we be teaching economics?

      "Report of the Commission on Graduate Education in Economics" with Anne Krueger et. al.,
      Journal of Economic Literature
      , XXIX, (September 1991), 1035-1053.

How should we do economics? We need balance, but we usually don’t have it.

      "Questions, Theory and Data," in Steven G. Medema and Warren J. Samuels,
      Foundations of Research in Economics: How do Economists Do Economics?,
      Edward Elgar Publishing Co., 1996, pp. 175-190.

We process pictures quite well, words pretty well and numbers hardly at all.

    "Revisiting Tobin’s 1950 Study of Food Expenditure," in Jan Magnus and Mary Morgan, ed., Special issue of Journal of Applied Econometrics, V 12, No3, Sept./Oct. 1997, 533-562. (with comments by McAleer, Barten and Schmidt, and reply)

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TRADE AND WAGES

What I think about the trade and wages debate

Whose wages are set in Guondong?

How does international trade affect wages?

How does outsourcing affect wages?

"The Effects of Trade in Services, Technology Transfer and Delocalisation on Local and Global Income Inequality,"
Asia-Pacific Economic Review
, April 1996, Vol. 2, No. 1, 44-60.

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EFFORT = TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY

My new bright idea: Effort = Total Factor Productivity

 

 

 

CLOSENESS AS A SOURCE OF COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE

How does closeness affect comparative advantage and wages?

"Access to Western Markets and Eastern Effort," in Salvatore Zecchini, ed., Lessons from the Economic Transition, Central and Eastern Europe in the 1990s, Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1997, pp. 503-526.

 

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MY OTHER FAVORITES

 

OTHER ARTICLES I AM ESPECIALLY PROUD I WROTE:


I wrote this article as my Senior Thesis at Princeton

      "Location Equilibria," Journal of Regional Science, Vol, 8 (No. 2, 1968), 229-242, reprinted in A.J. Scott, ed., Location Allocation Systems: (San Francisco: Holden-Day, Inc.).

This article came from my Ph.D. Dissertation

      "A Class of Informative Priors and Distributed Lag Analysis," Econometrica, 40 (November 1972), 1059-81.

Data-instigated models raise a fundamental philosophical problem with inferences from nonexperimental data

      "False Models and Post-Data Model Construction," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 69 (March 1974), 122-131; abstracted in Zentralblatt fur Mathematik, reprinted in Omar F. Hamouda and J.C.R. Rowley, Foundations of Probability, Econometrics and Economic Games, Edward Elgar Publishing Limited, 1995.

Overparameterization is a huge problem in econometrics

      "Multicollinearity: A Bayesian Interpretation," Review of Economics and Statistics, LV (August 1973), 371-380.

      "A Bayesian Interpretation of Pretesting," with G. Chamberlain, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 38 (No. 1, 1976), 85-94.

      "Explaining Your results' as Access-Biased Memory," Journal of the American Statistical Association (March 1975), 88-83.

      "A Result on the Sign of Restricted Least Squares Estimates," Journal of Econometrics, 3 (1975), 387-390.

      "Matrix Weighted Averages and Posterior Bounds," with G. Chamberlain, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 38 (No. 1 1976), 73-84.

      "Sets of Estimates of Location," Econometrica, Vol. 49, No. 1 (January 1981), 193-204.

      "Sets of Posterior Means with Bounded Variance Priors," Econometrica, 50 (May 1982), 725-736.

      "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," American Economics Review, 73 (March 1983), 31-43; reprinted in Bruce J. Caldwell, Criticism and Appraisal in Economics: A Book of Readings (Allen and Unwin, 1985); reprinted in Thomas J. Coyne, Readings in Managerial Economics, 1985; excerpted in Caroline P. Clotfelter, Economic Satire: Wit and Humor in the Dismal Science, Armonk, New York: M.E. Sharpe; summarized in Journal of Forecasting, reprinted in C.W.J. Granger,ed., Modelling Economic Series, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1990; reprinted in Dale J. Poirier, The Methodology of Econometrics II, Hants: U.K.: Edward Elgar, 1994; reprinted in Omar F. Hamouda and J.C.R. Rowley, Foundations of Probability, Econometrics and Economic Games, 1996; reprinted in Guy Peters, The International Library of Comparative Public Policy - Series B., 1996

      "Reporting the Fragility of Regression Estimates," with H. Leonard, Review of Economics and Statistics, LXV (May 1983), 306-3417.

      "Sets of Weighted Regressions" (with C.Z. Gilstein), Journal of the American Statistical Association, 78 (December 1983), 942-948.

      "Global Sensitivity Analysis for Generalized Least-Squares Estimates", Journal of the American Statistical Association, 79 (December 1984), 867-870.

      "Bid-Ask Spreads for Subjective Probabilities," in P. Goel and A. Zellner, eds., Bayesian Inference and Decision Techniques, New York: Elsevier, 1985.

Measurement Error is a Killer Disease

      "Consistent Sets of Estimates for Regression with All Variables Measured with Error" (with S. Klepper), Econometrica, 52 (January 1984), 163-183.

      "Errors-in-Variables in Linear Systems," Econometrica, Vol. 55, No. 4, July, 1987, 893 -909.

Cause and Intervention are two words that should go hand in hand

      "Vector Autoregressions for Causal Inference?", in Karl Brunner and Allan H. Meltzer, eds., Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series On Public Policy: Understanding Monetary Regimes, Volume 22, 1985, 255-304; reprinted in Kevin D. Hoover, ed., The New Classical Macroeconomics, The University of California Press at Davis, 1992; reprinted in Dale J. Poirier, The Methodology of Econometrics II, Hants, England: Edward Elgar, 1994.

Wu-Hausman Specification Error Testing is a bad idea.

      "Least Squares Versus Instrumental Variables Estimation in a Simple Errors in Variables Model," Econometrica (July 1978), 961-968.

White corrected standard errors are white-washing

      "Heteroscedasticity Sensitivity Diagnostics" in Sturdy Econometrics, Hants, England: Edward Elgar, 1994.

We need to be very careful linking trade theory properly with the data

      "The Leontief Paradox, Reconsidered," Journal of Political Economy (June 1980), 495-503; reprinted in J. Bhagwati, ed., International Trade: Selected Readings, Cambridge: MIT Press, 1986; reprinted in J. Peter Neary, ed., International Trade: The International Library of Critical Writings in Economics, Edward Elgar, forthcoming, 1994; reprinted in Heinz D. Kruz and Christian Lager, Input-Output Analysis, Edward Elgar Publishing Limited, 1997.

      "A Multi-country Multi-factor Test of the Factor Abundance Theory," with H.P. Bowen and L. Sveikauskus, American Economic Review, 77, no. 5, December 1987, 791 - 809; reprinted in Peter Neary, ed., International Trade: The International Library of Critical Writings in Economics, London: Edward Elgar Publishing, Ltd., .

      "International Trade Theory: The Evidence", with James Levinsohn,in G. Grossman and K. Rogoff, eds., Handbook of International Economics, Vol III, 1995, pp. 1339-1394.

The Heckscher-Ohlin Model is Wonderfully Rich

      "Paths of Development in the Three-Good n-Factor General Equilibrium Model," Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 95, No. 5, October, 1987, 961-999.

      "The Heckscher-Ohlin Model in Theory and Practice," Graham Lecture, Princeton Studies in International Finance, No. 77, February 1995

US wages can be affected by international trade and international agreements?

      "U.S. Wages and the Mexican-U.S. Free Trade Agreement", in Peter Garber, ed., The Mexico-U.S. Free Trade Agreement, Cambridge: M.I.T. Press, 1994, pp. 57-128.

      "U.S. Manufacturing and an Emerging Mexico," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Vol. 4, No. 1, Spring 1993, 51-89.

Contingent Valuation Surveys should be done with extraordinary care

"Report of the NOAA Panel on Contingent Valuation," with Kenneth Arrow, Paul Portney, Roy Radner, Howard Schumann and Robert Solow, Federal Register, Friday, January 15, 1993, 4602-4614.

 

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FORECAST REPORTS

 

PREVIOUS FORECAST REPORTS

"B2B and B2C in 2001, Back 2 Bankruptcies and Back 2 Cycles," December, 2000

"Too Many Pedators and Not Enough Prey: The When and the Why of the Demise of the Bush/Clinton Expansion," April, 2001.

"A Severe Power Crisis Hit the US" & "The Alphabet Soup of Forcasts U,V, L," June 2001

"If it Isn't a Recession, what is IT?" August, 2001

"Not Long, Not Deep But Not Much of a Recovery Either" December, 2001

"This is Our First 'Business' Cycle" March, 2002

"Should that 5.8% let the Bulls out?" April 2002

"Buble Trouble? 'Your Home Has a P/E Ration Too' " June, 2002

"Waiting Patiently for That 1999 Tech Equipment to become Obsolete" October, 2002

"No news is no news" December, 2002

"The Fourth Imbalance" March, 2003

"The Bush/Clinton Expansion of the 21st Century 'Overspent Consumers, Cautious Businesses and Broke Governments' " May 2003

"Looking for the Signs of Spring That Wonldn't Come" September 2003

"The Twilight Zone Economy" December 2003

"Normal, Again" June 2004

"A 2005 Rematch: The Housing Bubble and the Productivity Miracle vs. Reality and Reason" December 2004

"Red Skies at Night,..." March 2005

"Conference Board's Index of Leading Indicators" June, 2005

"No Resession Any Time Soon, But Troubles Ahead, Nonetheless" December 2005

 

 

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OP-ED

"Privatize Social Security; Here's Why" Los Angeles Times, October 16, 2000; reprinted in Newsday

 

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