September 2017 Economic Outlook

BLOG

Could Dysfunction in Washington Spill Over to the U.S. Economy?

UCLA Anderson Forecast’s third quarterly report in 2017 anticipates modest growth in real GDP with gains in employment. [...]
Read More »

Retail: Survival of the Fittest

Retail as we know it is going through a dramatic shift and the negative narrative is loud as ever. Consumer behavior is changing, retailers are trying desperately to compete [...]
Read More »

CALIFORNIA FORECAST:

Affordable Housing to Get a Bump

In this quarter’s California report we return to the question of housing affordability. The issue has become one of the prime concerns in Sacramento and in city halls throughout the state. In earlier reports, we made the claim that the high cost of housing is a deterrent for in-migration to California, and as such, limits the growth rate of State GDP once full employment occurs. Since we are in the neighborhood of full employment, it is worthwhile to consider the various plans being offered and ask if they are going to change this dynamic. [...]
Read more »

Videos

Economy Growing Amidst
Washington Chaos

Affordable Housing to
Get a Bump

What Happened to the Retail
Industry in the U.S.?

Commercial Real Estate Survey:
The 2017 Results

ECommerce: Where Does Retail
Go From Here?

UCLA Anderson Forecast presents

September 2017 Economic Outlook

A revolution is underway in retailing as online sales are taking about 50% of the incremental growth. Store closings will approach 9000 this year more than quadruple the 2000 reported as recently as 2013 and remember the economic environment has been benign. What will happen when it turns more hostile? The proposed Amazon-Whole Foods merger sent shivers throughout the grocery sector, once though to be immune from online competition. Nevertheless physical retailing has not been taking the online onslaught lying down by shifting to omni-channel distribution and offering more experiential opportunities for shoppers. Our conference will focus on what will happen to this giant sector of the economy that employs nearly 16 million people and occupies about 7 billion square feet of space.

Agenda

7:30 - 8:30a	Registration + Breakfast
8:30 - 8:35a	Welcome + Introductions
8:35 - 9:30a	UCLA Anderson Forecast for the Nation, California and Los Angeles Jerry Nickelsburg, Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast David Shulman, Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast William Yu, Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
9:30 - 9:40a	Q + A with the Forecast Team
9:40 - 9:55a	Allen Matkins / UCLA Anderson Forecast California Commercial Real Estate Survey: The 2017 results John Tipton, Partner, Allen Matkins
9:55 - 10:10a	Break
10:10 - 10:40a	Keynote - A Sea Change: The Retailer's Perspective Gary Schoenfeld, Former CEO, Pacific Sunwear and Vans, Inc.
10:40 - 11:30a	Panel - Ecommerce: Where does retail go from here? Moderator: David Shulman, Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast Randolph E. Bucklin, Peter W. Mullin Chair in Management & Professor of Marketing, UCLA Anderson School Daniel Busch, Managing Director, Green Street Advisors Retail Specialist Art Coppola, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Macerich Gary Schoenfeld, Former CEO, Pacific Sunwear and Vans, Inc.

Key Topics

	Retail and shopping center stocks have collapsed this year in the face of a rising stock market. Is the stock market right or is the pessimism overdone?
	Can the economy break out of the 2% growth path it has been in since 2010?
	Why is California's growth slowing?
	How big a problem might retail employment be in California?
	What are the prospects for trade in the fourth quarter?
	How have the retail industry and it's employment changed over the past two decades across cities?