March 2018 Economic Outlook

 
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UCLA Anderson Forecast
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NEWS

UCLA Anderson Forecast Sees “Regime Change”: Could the Economy Stall Out under Higher Inflation and Interest Rates?

UCLA Anderson Forecast’s first quarterly report in 2018 sees a definitive change in the nation’s economy, which is moving from one of sluggish growth and low inflation to one of accelerating growth and moderate inflation. At the same time, with President Trump’s announced plans to increase tariffs on steel and aluminum, things could get worse, as domestic costs rise and foreign producers retaliate. Amid the changes forecast for the national outlook, California, still leading the nation in job growth, is expected to continue to outperform the U.S.   [...]
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LOS ANGELES FORECAST:

How Important is International Trade to Los Angeles?

Los Angeles has the largest seaport in North America. Its container cargo traffic – exports and imports combined – accounts for 1/3 of all cargo traffic in the U.S.2 We can easily figure out that international trade is very important to the L.A. economy because it is the home of such a prominent seaport. In this report, we will (1) present further evidence of importance of trade to the L.A. economy, (2) examine how the trade is correlated with the U.S. economy, and (3) look at how trade impacts sector jobs in L.A.  [...]
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Videos

Regime Change

Regime Change
Forecast & Speculation

Forecast & Speculation
How Important is International Trade to Los Angeles?

How Important is International Trade to Los Angeles?
The Twin Deficits

The Twin Deficits
Keynote Address: Trade, Taxes, and Trump

Keynote Address:
Trade, Taxes, and Trump
Expert Panel: Taxes and Trade

Expert Panel: Taxes and Trade
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UCLA Anderson Forecast presents

March 2018 Economic Outlook

As we enter the second year of the Trump administration there are two major initiatives that will impact our local economy; the tax overhaul passed last December and the ongoing renegotiation of trade relations with Mexico, Canada, South Korea and China. What if NAFTA falls apart? Will there be a trade war with China? How will the taxation of foreign source earnings affect U.S. corporate production and employment? These and other topics related to trade and taxation will be explored at the UCLA Anderson Forecast conference on March 7, 2018.

Agenda
7:30 - 8:30a Registration + Breakfast
8:30 - 8:40a Welcome + Introductions
8:40 - 9:30a UCLA Anderson Forecast for the Nation, California and Los Angeles
David Shulman, Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Jerry Nickelsburg, Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast
William Yu, Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Edward Leamer, Distinguished Professor, Chauncey J. Medberry Chair in Management
9:30 - 9:40a Q + A with the Forecast Team
9:40 - 9:55a Break
10:00 - 10:30a Keynote Address
John F. McKenzie, Partner, Baker & McKenzie LLP
10:30 - 11:30a Panel - After the political noise, what do the changes in taxes and the trade pact negotiations mean for the economy?
Moderator: Jerry Nickelsburg, Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Edward Leamer, Distinguished Professor, Chauncey J. Medberry Chair in Management
Michael Storper, Distinguished Professor of Regional and International Development in Urban Planning; Director, Global Public Affairs at UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs, UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs
Eric Zolt, Michael H. Schill Distinguished Professor of Law, UCLA Law
Sebastian Edwards, Distinguished Professor, Henry Ford II Chair of International Management, GEM Area Chair, Director Center for Global Management, UCLA Anderson School of Management
Key Topics
Will Wall Street volatility be reflected on Main Street?
Will inflation exceed the Fed's 2% target in 2018?
How many times will the Fed raise rates in 2018?
Is the recent strength in housing activity portending a stronger recovery in that sector?
Will the new tax structure slow California's growth?
Are housing prices in California going down?
How important is international trade to Los Angeles?
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