June 2018 Economic Outlook

 
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UCLA Anderson Forecast
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NEWS

UCLA Anderson Forecast Sees the Economy Moving Ahead — For Now

The overall economy appears to be growing at a steady pace, but there are potential threats that could affect the United States and California economic outlooks, according to the UCLA Anderson Forecast’s second quarterly report for 2018. The risk of a trade war with one or more of the major U.S. trading partners, the uncertainties in Italian politics and their potential impact on the Euro-zone, the potential for withdrawal from NAFTA, and the now likely victory of Andres Manuel Lopez Obredor in the July Mexican presidential elections are among the elevated risks to the current forecast.   [...]
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REAL ESTATE FORECAST:

The Best of Times and the Worst of Times for Housing

The outlook for housing over the next few years depends upon where you live and how you live. If you are a homeowner in coastal California, the Pacific Northwest, parts of the coastal northeast and such fast growing cities of Denver, Nashville and Austin you are sitting pretty enjoying rapidly increasing house prices. On the other hand, if you are a potential middle-class home buyer or a struggling renter in those areas you are facing a very personal affordability crisis. From the supply side, although housing starts remain signifi-cantly below the boom years of 2004-2006, well-capitalized homebuilders, apartment owners and construction workers find their products in great demand.  [...]
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Videos

Interest Rates Move to the Center Stage

Interest Rates Move to the Center Stage
Affordability, Full Employment, and Economic Growth

Affordability, Full Employment, and Economic Growth
Homelessness in U.S., California, and Los Angeles

Homelessness in U.S., California, and Los Angeles
Allen Matkins | UCLA Anderson Forecast CRE Survey 2018

Allen Matkins | UCLA Anderson Forecast CRE Survey 2018
How do we tell the difference between the good, bad, and ugly?

How do we tell the difference between the good, bad, and ugly?
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UCLA Anderson Forecast in Partnership with the UCLA Ziman Center for Real Estate present

June 2018 Economic Outlook

The national economy remains strong with real GDP growth approximating 3% this year. However, a tightening labor market accompanied by rising inflation and higher interest rates will cause growth to slow in 2019 and 2020. Further increased trade tensions combined with trillion dollar deficits will add to economic uncertainty as the decade ends.

In Residential Real Estate, although house prices have more than recovered from their previous peaks over a decade ago, housing activity as measured by starts and existing home sales has not. What gives? Why haven't we witnessed a full recovery given the strength in the broader economy? The forecast will attempt to answer these questions and whether or not the boom in apartments rents and multi-family construction will continue.

Agenda
7:30 - 8:30a Registration + Breakfast
8:30 - 8:40a Welcome + Introductions
Jerry Nickelsburg, Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast
8:40 - 8:50a Cathay Bank-UCLA Anderson Forecast Quarterly U.S./China Report Launch
Irwin Wong, Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, Cathay Bank
8:50 - 9:45a UCLA Anderson Forecast for the Nation, California, and Migration and Homelessness in Los Angeles
David Shulman, Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Jerry Nickelsburg, Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast
William Yu, Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
9:45 - 10:00a Q + A with the Forecast Team
10:00 - 10:10a Allen Matkins / UCLA Anderson Forecast CRE Survey Results
A conversation with John Tipton, Partner at Allen Matkins, hosted by Jerry Nickelsburg
10:10 - 10:25a Break
10:25 - 11:00a Introduction of Real Estate Topic
Stuart Gabriel, Arden Realty Chair, Professor of Finance and Director, UCLA Ziman Center for Real Estate

Setting the Stage
David Shulman, Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
11:00 - 11:55a Panel - Zoning: How do we tell the difference between the good, bad, and ugly?
Moderator: Stuart Gabriel, Arden Realty Chair, Professor of Finance and Director, UCLA Ziman Center for Real Estate
David Shulman, Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast

Scott Wiener, Senator, California State Senate, District 11
Cynthia Strathmann, Executive Director, SAJE
Suzanne Fuentes, Former Mayor, City of El Segundo

Michael Lens, Associate Faculty Director of the UCLA Lewis Center for Regional Policy Studies; Associate Professor of Urban Planning and Policy, UCLA Luskin School of Public Policy
Key Topics
How low will the unemployment rate go?
How high will the Fed increase interest rates?
How strong will the defense spending boom be?
Will trade tensions spill over into the broader economy?
California economic growth has slowed the last few months. Does this portend a trend?
How will rising interest rates affect residential construction in California?
How do housing prices impact migration and vice versa across the country?
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