June 2018 Economic Outlook

 
Korn Convocation Hall, UCLA Anderson School
Wednesday, June 13, 2018 | 7:30 a.m. - 11:45 a.m.
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Registration: $195
Seating is limited. Online registration closes 11:59 p.m. on 6/11/2018
 

UCLA Anderson Forecast in Partnership with the UCLA Ziman Center for Real Estate present

June 2018 Economic Outlook

The national economy remains strong with real GDP growth approximating 3% this year. However, a tightening labor market accompanied by rising inflation and higher interest rates will cause growth to slow in 2019 and 2020. Further increased trade tensions combined with trillion dollar deficits will add to economic uncertainty as the decade ends.

In Residential Real Estate, although house prices have more than recovered from their previous peaks over a decade ago, housing activity as measured by starts and existing home sales has not. What gives? Why haven't we witnessed a full recovery given the strength in the broader economy? The forecast will attempt to answer these questions and whether or not the boom in apartments rents and multi-family construction will continue.

Agenda
7:30 - 8:30a Registration + Breakfast
8:30 - 8:40a Welcome + Introductions
Jerry Nickelsburg, Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast
8:40 - 9:35a UCLA Anderson Forecast for the Nation, California, and Migration and Homelessness in Los Angeles
David Shulman, Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Jerry Nickelsburg, Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast
William Yu, Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
9:35 - 9:50a Q + A with the Forecast Team
9:50 - 10:00a Cathay Bank-UCLA Anderson Forecast Quarterly U.S./China Report Launch
Irwin Wong, Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, Cathay Bank
10:00 - 10:10a Allen Matkins / UCLA Anderson Forecast CRE Survey Results
A conversation with John Tipton, Partner at Allen Matkins, hosted by Jerry Nickelsburg
10:10 - 10:25a Break
10:25 - 11:00a Introduction of Real Estate Topic
Stuart Gabriel, Arden Realty Chair, Professor of Finance and Director, UCLA Ziman Center for Real Estate

Setting the Stage
David Shulman, Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
11:00 - 11:55a Panel - Zoning: How do we tell the difference between the good, bad, and ugly?
Moderator: Stuart Gabriel, Arden Realty Chair, Professor of Finance and Director, UCLA Ziman Center for Real Estate
David Shulman, Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast

Scott Wiener, Senator, California State Senate, District 11
Cynthia Strathmann, Executive Director, SAJE
Suzanne Fuentes, Mayor, City of El Segundo

Michael Lens, Associate Faculty Director of the UCLA Lewis Center for Regional Policy Studies; Associate Professor of Urban Planning and Policy, UCLA Luskin School of Public Policy
Key Topics
How low will the unemployment rate go?
How high will the Fed increase interest rates?
How strong will the defense spending boom be?
Will trade tensions spill over into the broader economy?
California economic growth has slowed the last few months. Does this portend a trend?
How will rising interest rates affect residential construction in California?
How do housing prices impact migration and vice versa across the country?
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