June 2017 Economic Outlook

 

UCLA Anderson Forecast in partnership with ucla ziman center for real estate presents

June 2017 Economic Outlook

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UCLA Anderson Forecast
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Forecast: Is a Recession in Sight?

UCLA Anderson Forecast anticipates continued modest growth in its second quarter report. Edward Leamer, UCLA Anderson Forecast director, took a deep dive in an accompanying essay into the state of the nation’s economy, offering advice about the three critical forecasting questions: (1) Is the risk of recession elevated? (Answer: No.) (2) Can President Donald Trump make America great again in the sense of getting GDP growth back up to 3% after seven years of 2%? (Answer: Not likely.) [...]


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HOUSING MARKET:

Housing Activity Grinds Higher

In this most unusual of housing cycles, housing starts continue to slowly grind higher as it has since the cyclical bottom in 2009, eight long years ago. (See Figure 1) Further, the recovery remains so tepid that the level of starts remains well below prior peaks and are at what used to be characterized as recession levels. In contrast, prior cycles exhibited very sharp rebounds that approached or surpassed the prior cyclical peak. Although the recovery hasn’t been completed, it has certainly been lengthy by historical standards.  [...]


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Videos

Three Things to Worry About

Three Things to Worry About
The California Forecast and the 2017 Budget

The California Forecast and the
2017 Budget
Housing Activity Grinds Higher

Housing Activity Grinds Higher



The Fundamentals of the Housing Market: A Closer Look at Los Angeles

The Fundamentals of the Housing
Market: A Closer Look at Los Angeles
The Challenge of Housing Affordabiity

The Challenge of Housing
Affordabiity
Affordability, Infrastructure & Growth in Los Angeles

Affordability, Infrastructure & Growth
in Los Angeles
Agenda
7:30 - 8:30a Registration + Breakfast
8:30 - 8:40a Welcome + Introductions
8:40 - 9:15a UCLA Anderson Forecast for the Nation, California and Los Angeles
Edward Leamer, Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Jerry Nickelsburg, Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
9:15 - 9:30a Q + A with the Forecast Team
9:30 - 10:15a The Landscape of Housing
David Shulman, Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Stuart Gabriel, Professor of Finance and Arden Realty Chair, UCLA Anderson School, Director, UCLA Ziman Center for Real Estate
William Yu, Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
10:15 - 10:30a Break
10:30 - 11:30a Panel - Affordability, Infrastructure & Growth in Los Angeles
Moderator: Jerry Nickelsburg, Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Ben Winter, Housing Policy Specialist, Mayor's Office, City of Los Angeles
Michael Manville, Assistant Professor, UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs
Isela Gracian, President, East L.A. Community Corporation
Thomas L. Safran, Chairman, Thomas Safran & Associates
Key Topics
How solid is the housing recovery?
Has multi-family construction peaked?
Where will mortgage rates be by year-end?
Are housing prices getting ahead of underlying market demand?
Why is slower growth in California a bad thing?
Is Los Angeles in a housing bubble?
Why are housing prices of some areas more expensive than others in Los Angeles?
How do foreign investors influence L.A. housing prices?
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